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5

Looking into the Future for Knowledge, Science and Technology and AKST

Coordinating Lead Author:
Marie de Lattre-Gasquet (France)

Lead Authors:
Helena Kahiluoto (Finland), Reimund Roetter (Germany)

Contributing Authors:
Tilly Gaillard (USA), Paul Guillebeau (USA), Hugues de Jouvenel (France), Véronique Lamblin (France), Dorota Metera (Poland), W.A. Rienks (The Netherlands)

Review Editors:
John Stone (Canada), Pai-Yei Whung (USA)

Key Messages

5.1 Context 154
  5.1.1 Problem statement 154
  5.1.2 Review of related studies 155
    5.1.2.1 At global level 155
    5.1.2.2 At European level 156
    5.1.2.3 At North American level 160
    5.1.2.4 Relationship of scenarios in different exercises 161
5.2 Indirect Drivers for AKST 161
  5.2.1 Demographic drivers 161
  5.2.2 Economics and international trade 164
  5.2.3 Sociopolitical drivers 164
5.3 Key Direct Drivers for KST: Uncertainties and Consequences for AKST 165
  5.3.1 Transformation in models of knowledge production: trends and uncertainties 165
    5.3.1.1 Trends 165
    5.3.1.2 Uncertainties of the future 166
  5.3.2 Transformation in models of innovation: trends and uncertainties 166
    5.3.2.1 Number of researchers: trends 166
    5.3.2.2 Research and technology organizations: trends   167
    5.3.2.3 Universities: trends 167
    5.3.2.4 Multinational enterprises and small and medium enterprises: trends 168
    5.3.2.5 International, national and regional governments: trends 168
    5.3.2.6 Uncertainties of the future 168
  5.3.3 Information technology: trends and uncertainties 169
    5.3.3.1 Trends 169
    5.3.3.2 Uncertainties of the future 169
  5.3.4 Evolution of KST with potential impact on AKST 169
  5.3.5 Financial resources devoted to science and technology: trends and uncertainties 170
    5.3.5.1 Trends 170
    5.3.5.2 Uncertainties of the future 171
  5.3.6 Attitudes towards science and technology: trends and uncertainties 171
  5.3.7 Education in science: trends and uncertainties 172
5.4 Key Direct Drivers for Agriculture: Uncertainties and Consequences for AKST 172
  5.4.1 Food consumption and distribution: Trends and uncertainties 172
    5.4.1.1   Ongoing trends 172
    5.4.1.2 Uncertainties of the future 174
    5.4.1.3 Consequences for AKST 174
  5.4.2 Policies, trade and markets 175
    5.4.2.1 Ongoing trends 175
    5.4.2.2 Uncertainties of the future 176
    5.4.2.3 Consequences for AKST 177
  5.4.3 Farming systems and farm structures 177
    5.4.3.1 Ongoing trends 177
    5.4.3.2 Uncertainties of the future 178
    5.4.3.3 Consequences for AKST 178
  5.4.4 Agricultural labor and organizations 178
    5.4.4.1 Labor and gender dynamics: ongoing trend 178
    5.4.4.2 Organizations: ongoing trends 179
    5.4.4.3 Uncertainties of the future 180
    5.4.4.4 Consequences for AKST 180
  5.4.5 Natural resources availability and management 180
    5.4.5.1 Ongoing trends 180
    5.4.5.2 Uncertainties of the future 185
    5.4.5.3 Consequences for AKST 185
  5.4.6 Climate change and variability 186
    5.4.6.1 Ongoing trends 186
    5.4.6.2 Uncertainties for the future 188
    5.4.6.3 Consequences for AKST 190
  5.4.7 Energy and bioenergy 191
    5.4.7.1   Ongoing trends 191
    5.4.7.2 Uncertainties of the future 191
    5.4.7.3 Consequences for AKST 192
5.5 Key Drivers for AKST, Agricultural Research and Innovation Systems and their Uncertainties 192
  5.5.1 Organizations and funding of AKST 192
    5.5.1.1  Ongoing trends 193
    5.5.1.2 Uncertainties of the future 194
    5.5.1.3 Consequences for AKST 195
  5.5.2 Proprietary regimes 195
    5.5.2.1   Ongoing trends 195
    5.5.2.2 Uncertainties of the future 196
  5.5.3 Access, control and distribution of AKST 196
    5.5.3.1  Ongoing trends 196
    5.5.3.2 Uncertainties of the future 197
    5.5.3.3 Consequences for AKST 197
5.6 Future AKST Systems and Their Potential Contributions to Sustainable Development Goals 198
  5.6.1 Four normative agricultural innovation systems 198
    5.6.1.1 Market-led AKST 198
    5.6.1.2 Ecosystem-oriented AKST 198
    5.6.1.3 Local food-supply led AKST 199
    5.6.1.4 Local-learning AKST 200
  5.6.2 Towards options for action 201

151

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