tion methods; the input companies produce less dangerous chemicals and so on.
The increasingly integrated global trade environment leads to convergence in dietary preferences and patterns across countries and this, in turn, is stimulating the ongoing structural changes in food processing and retailing. Thus, to a large degree, multinational food companies are the cause and the consequence of the evolving global food system. By their nature, these multinational food companies transcend national borders and give rise to greater interdependence of economies and larger trade flows. To manage and harmonize product flows along the food chain, they also are at the basis of vertically cocoordinated marketing systems. The purpose of these systems is to ensure that product and process requirements for food products are met at all stages of the supply chain, thereby reducing transaction costs. Thus, evolving globalized systems of food production and retailing are becoming an element of increasing importance with respect to the integration of developing countries into global food markets (OECD/FAO, 2005).
5.4.4.3 Uncertainties of the future
There are generic and specific uncertainties related to labor and organizations. Here are some of them.
• Farmers' age and gender. Will measures be taken to formalize women's status in the farm enterprise? Will women manage an increasing number of farms? In the EU, will there be enough young people interested in farming and capable of managing sustainable production methods that meet environmental and societal goals while providing an adequate income?
• Employment. How can unemployment/underemployment in rural areas be solved? Will farmer education and the creation of non-farm jobs in rural areas be addressed simultaneously? How will the pluriactivity of men and women in rural areas be taken into account? How will pluriactivity influence benefits and resources available to farmers? How will structural unemployment in agriculture be tackled, especially in the Eastern European countries?
• Migration. How will NAE political leaders address the problems associated with illegal migrants coming to rural areas for permanent or seasonal agricultural work?
• Education, skills. Will there be training courses to help farmers become entrepreneurs who can compete in global agricultural markets while achieving the goals of sustainability and multifunctionality? Will there be administrative and financial measures to facilitate young farmers' training and installation?
5.4.4.4 Consequences forAKST
Decisions related to labor will have consequences on AKST. For example, if migration is permitted and people from outside NAE move to rural areas for seasonal work, the need for research on crop harvesting, etc. will not be great. On the other hand, strict migration policies will lead to research on productivity improvement. Another example: the demand for mechanization, computer assistance and automated responses will also not be the same if NAE is able to attract |
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young, well-trained, entrepreneurial farmers, or if the rural population continues to age, is not very well trained, and labor is not available.
5.4.5 Natural resources availability and management
Increasing prices of energy, water, minerals and other natural resources could affect outputs, costs and practices in all sectors of the food system. Decreasing availability of natural resources, for example oil, water and phosphate, and increasing competition for the use of these resources are leading to rising costs which could have very negative impacts on agricultural production, processing, distribution, retail and purchasing. A substantial reduction of the use of these resources in agricultural production through savings, improved management and new technological developments that increase use efficiency, etc., could alleviate the consequences of this trend.
5.4.5.1 Ongoing trends
Agriculture has a complex relationship with natural resources and the environment. It is a major user of land and water resources yet needs to maintain the quantity and quality of these resources in order to remain viable.
Natural resources, including raw materials, comprise minerals, biomass and biological resources such as forest, soil, water, air, energy resources such as fossil fuels, wind, geothermal, tidal and solar energy and land areas. Whether these resources are utilized as materials/inputs for production, or as environmental buffers or sinks, most of them are essential for the functioning of agroecosystems and so-cioecological systems at large. The way and speed in which renewable and non-renewable natural resources are being used strongly determines the basis for sustainable development (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2006). The climate system is an important issue since it is an important natural resource (see 5.4.6: Climate change and variability); energy and bioenergy issues are also important (see 5.4.7).
The linkages between natural resource availability and agricultural management practices are considerable. For example, the need for irrigation will not be the same if and where climate becomes drier and water gets more polluted and the frequency of major floods increases, etc.
Agriculture utilizes natural processes to produce the goods (food and non-food) that we need to support the demand of an ever growing population (Verhagen et al., 2007). While acknowledging that population trends and projections for NAE show stagnation and decline, the region will most likely continue to produce for and export to other regions of the world to help satisfy their needs and requirements. Both, renewable resources like agricultural soils, and non-renewable resources like the world's fossil fuels, have their limits. The most limiting resources to food production and other goods provided by agroecosystems in NAE are land and water. Agricultural systems are typically managed to maximize provisioning services to provide food, but they require several other supporting and regulating services to support production. Agriculture both depends on and generates ecosystem services. Agricultural ecosystem services have been grouped into three categories: services |