Key Messages

1. Choices about agricultural knowledge, science and technology (AKST) relate to paradigms, investment, governance, policy and other ways to influence the behavior of producers, consumers and food chain ac­tors. They will have powerful impacts on which develop­ment and sustainability goals are achieved and where, both globally and within NAE. There are many uncertainties of the future, and therefore a number of alternative AKST fu­tures can be identified. It is unlikely that all development goals can be achieved in any of these futures.
     As Seneca wrote: "There is no favorable wind for the person who does not know where he wants to go." De­pending on which development direction society chooses and how funds are allocated, different drivers will be em­phasized. This will affect agricultural systems and related AKST. When making decisions, policy makers will need to consider the opinions of the local population and organi­zations, and the increasing number of NGOs involved in AKST. Interventions on some trends or in response to some uncertainties can be more quickly implemented and be more effective than on others.

2. The conclusion of a number of recent global and re­gional foresight exercises on agriculture, rural devel­opment and environment is that business as usual will not be good enough. Consumers, producers and informa­tion providers will have to rapidly recognize and respect the physical limits of the planet and the biological equilibriums needed to ensure long-term survival. New responses must be found. Different kinds of approaches have been used to address future changes in agriculture. Some have employed projections accompanied by limited policy simulations. Oth­ers have proposed scenarios and considered a wide range of uncertainties in an integrated manner. They all explore key linkages between different drivers and resulting changes.

3. Science and technology studies stress the con­sequences of major technological developments in fields not directly related to agriculture but that could have important potential impact on AKST in the fu­ture. These relate, for example, to information and com­munication technologies e.g., imaging and Radio Frequency Identification, as well as to nanotechnologies, genomics, biotechnologies and physics.

4. NAE agrifood systems will continue to face long­standing problems to increase the output level of ag­ricultural products and services without jeopardizing (1) the natural resource base, (2) food security through equitable access to food and stable food supplies for an aging NAE population and a growing global popula­tion, and (3) food safety. The second challenge does not mean producing food to sell or to donate to other countries, but rather cooperating with other countries in developing and sharing AKST that meets this goal.

5. Emerging trends in agriculture are leading AKST to tackle problems that are interacting in a dynamic, complex   and   mutually   reinforcing   way,   generat-

ing long-term impacts, cross-impacts and feedback loops. They are thus requiring new forms of AKST. The main trends are the following:
•     Human as well as plant and animal health consider­ations are becoming more important. Populations in North America  and Western Europe,  especially the poor, face alarming increases in illnesses associated with inadequate diets and over-processed food. Central and Eastern Europe are likely to face the same problems in the near future. Increased plant and animal diseases, as well as weed and insect problems, both evolving and invasive, are threatening production in certain areas and are leading to overuse of agricultural chemicals and antibiotics, whose lingering residual effects in the envi­ronment is threatening human health. This trend could be addressed through new AKST, more information and appropriate regulations, as well as encouragement for individuals and companies to market and consume or­ganic foods.
•     Agricultural trade policies and subsidies in NAE tend to undermine the achievement of development goals in other parts of the world. There is uncertainty about whether the World Trade Organization will be effective in harmonizing approaches to internal subsidies, and about whom is likely to benefit, how much and for how long if NAE subsidies are removed. Applying AKST to agricultural policies and property regimes might help balance the needs of vulnerable people in other regions of the world.
•     Farms tend to specialize, as they grow in size and de­cline in numbers. Alternative agrosystems coexist with mainstream agriculture. Farmers are working in larger enterprises,   operating  through  cooperative   arrange­ments and contracts with large businesses. This could lead to greater complexity and monopolies that reduce resilience and choices. AKST is needed to devise alterna­tive agrosystems.
•     Businesses in every sector of the food system are con­centrating into integrated networks and exerting power by imposing standards on suppliers that challenges their ability to remain viable. Such standards gradually ex­clude small-scale producers, processors or other enter­prises from participation in markets. The rate at which this integration is proceeding and the specific geographic areas and sectors that businesses will choose to enter are uncertain, in part because most business decisions are not transparent.
•     Rural populations are dwindling and agro-urban areas are growing. Multiple expectations on farming systems are leading to the development of new enterprises such as agrotourism, and are pushing the farming systems to deliver new services, such as watershed development and landscape protection. But the high demands on agriculture to provide energy could change this trend. AKST is needed to improve the sustainability of food and farming systems, regardless of what is demanded of them.
•     Migrant labor represents a growing proportion of the workers in the agrifood sector, especially in parts of the United States and the southern countries of Europe. An increasing number of them are illegal immigrants.