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perts claim that energy costs will rise sharply if we increase the share of biofuels in the energy supply mix. This does not consider the many opportunities for reducing the use of fossil fuel e.g., by applying energy-saving technologies and choosing low-emission activities (as has already been demonstrated by many NAE multinational companies such as BP, Shell, Bayer, General Electric) (Fresco, 2006).
     The "next-generation" biofuels are based on cellulose biomass such as tall grasses as well as wood and crop resi­dues that are generally abundant and can be harvested with less interference with the food system and potentially will put less strain on land, air and water resources. Another potential "next-generation" feedstock is the organic por­tion of municipal solid waste. The use of "next-generation" cellulose biomass feedstock has the potential to dramati­cally expand the resource base for producing biofuels in the future (Fresco, 2006; Marris, 2006). Over the next 10-15 years, lower-cost sources of cellulose biomass, such as the organic fraction of municipal waste and the residues from the processing of crops and forestry products, are expected to provide the initial feedstock. Many questions arise in this context. One is, to what extent can these technological de­velopments be accelerated by further supporting policy in­terventions, better public-private research cooperation and increased investment?
     Research and development efforts to date have demon­strated the feasibility of producing a variety of liquid fuels from cellulose biomass for use in existing vehicles. As of mid-2006, however, the costs of producing such liquid fu­els were not competitive with either petroleum-derived fuels or more conventional biofuels. The diffusion of "Flex Fuel Cars" (currently about 50% of the cars in Brazil) introduces flexibility to respond to fuel price fluctuations. Various gov­ernment and industry-sponsored efforts are under way to lower the costs of making liquid fuel from cellulose biomass by improving the conversion technologies. (Worldwatch In­stitute, 2006). How fast these developments will proceed is still unclear. Unambiguous cost signals as well as infor­mation regarding the availability of new technologies will influence consumer preferences and behavior. These devel­opments will depend on economic growth and sustainable development outside the NAE region. According to recent projections China and India are expected to account for 30 to 40% of energy demand by 2030 (IEA, 2006).
     The dual challenge is to secure adequate energy at af­fordable prices and, at the same time, limit consumption such that it does less environmental harm. It is unclear to what extent agriculture in NAE will become an energy pro­ducer, and how much its energy-efficiency can be increased. This depends on AKST as well as on other KST efforts. More centralized and technology-intensive renewable forms of en­ergy may well outweigh agriculture as an energy-producer.

5.4.7.3 Consequences for AKST
Actors in AKST need to pay more attention to the following energy-related issues:
•     Research into new farming systems that are able to sat­isfy their own energy needs and defray their own costs by producing biofuels, as well as installing other renew­able sources of energy such as wind and solar power.
•     Generation of knowledge that allows sustainable pro-

 

duction of biofuels, i.e., in an economically-viable, en­vironmentally-friendly and socially-acceptable manner.
•     Proper accounting for the full energy demand of the ag­ricultural sector in environmental impact assessments.
•     Biochemistry and ecosystem studies to eliminate ag­ricultural and forestry residues or use it to produce bioenergy.

Furthermore,   the   following   general   issues   need  to   be considered:
•     Evaluation of investment options in the short, medium and long term for energy exploration and production infrastructure.
•     Increasing energy efficiency, identifying measures to re­duce the demand from the transport sector, promoting the development and deployment of technology.
•     Assessing options for next 50-100 years, e.g., potential for biofuels and other renewable sources like wind, so­lar, tidal, etc.
•     Making use of new technologies to combine energy sources in an efficient way (photovoltaic with fuel cells or new large accumulators), especially in decentralized systems.

5.5 Key Drivers for Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology (AKST) and Agricultural Research and Innovation Systems and Their Uncertainties
Agricultural R&D is not conducted in isolation; it is strongly influenced by the rest of science. In 2000, the world invested 725 billion dollars in all the sciences carried out by both public agencies and private firms—that is about one third more than in 1995—with the biggest increases in the Asia and Pacific region. However, there is evidence of a huge, and partly growing, divide between the "scientific haves and have nots." The total amount spent on sciences is ap­proximately 1.7% of the world's GDP worldwide. Public agricultural R&D funds amounted to 23 billion dollars in 2000, about 3% of the total science spending (CGIAR Sci­ence Council, 2005).
     Today's agricultural research systems are increasingly being asked to tackle problems that are, strictly speaking, external to agriculture. The emphasis is shifting away from the development of productivity and increasing technologies towards that of new approaches to social and environmen­tal issues, such as the protection of natural resources, food safety and animal welfare. The challenge is to promote de­velopment that balances equity and environmental interests with those of economic growth, while limiting the negative external effects of agriculture (ISNAR, 2003).

5.5.1 Organizations and funding of AKST
The futures of organizations for AKST are going to be influ­enced by changes in the Agricultural System and in the KST systems. In this subchapter, we will briefly describe these organizations in the different regions of North America and Europe, and shed light on a number of uncertainties for the future. Funding will also be considered.
     AKST organizations in North America and Europe in­clude all the formal and informal organizations controlling, generating, distributing and utilizing agricultural knowl-