170 | North America and Europe (NAE) Report

•     Information society technologies,
•     Life sciences, genomics and biotechnology for health,
•     Sustainable development, global change and ecosystem.
Two different rationales support the selection of these tech­nologies. The first one is that they are emerging and have been identified through a questionnaire sent to a panel of about 1300 experts in all the countries of the enlarged Eu­rope. The second one is the results of the foresight literature review both in the European and the main competitor coun­tries (EU Commission, 2006). However, if Gross Expendi­tures for R&D (GERD) stay at the present level and if there is no coherent European or NAE policy, it is unlikely that all of the research can be done. The AKST investments will not be the same if the main drivers are life sciences, sustainable development and economic factors or if they are societal motives.
      In the USA, a technical foresight study (Global Technol­ogy Revolution 2020) undertaken by RAND Corporation (RAND Corporation, 2006) has identified applications:
•     Cheap solar energy. Solar energy systems inexpensive enough to be widely available to developing and unde­veloped countries as well as to economically disadvan-taged populations that are not on existing power grids.
•     Rural wireless communications. Widely available tele­phone and Internet connectivity without a wired net­work infrastructure.
•     Communication devices for ubiquitous information ac­cess. Communication and storage devices—both wired and wireless—that provide  agile  access to informa­tion sources anywhere, anytime. Operating seamlessly across communication and data storage protocols, these devices will have growing capabilities to store not only text but also meta-text with layered contextual infor­mation, images, voice, music, video and movies.
•     Genetically modified  (GM)   crops.   Genetically  engi­neered foods with improved nutritional value—e.g., through added vitamins and micronutrients, increased production; by tailoring crops to local conditions and reduced pesticide use; by increasing resistance to pests.
•     Rapid bioassays. Simple, multiple tests that can be per­formed quickly and simultaneously to verify the pres­ence or absence of specific biological substances.
•     Filters and catalysts. Techniques and devices to effec­tively and reliably filter, purify and decontaminate wa­ter locally using unskilled labor.
•     Targeted drug delivery. Drug therapies that preferen­tially attack specific tumors or pathogens without harm­ing healthy tissues and cells.
•     Cheap autonomous housing. Self-sufficient and afford­able housing that provides shelter adaptable to local conditions as well as energy for heating, cooling and cooking.
•     Green manufacturing. Redesigned manufacturing pro­cesses that either eliminate  or greatly reduce waste streams and the need to use toxic materials.
•      Ubiquitous radio frequency identification (RFID) tag­ging of commercial products and individuals. Wide­spread use of RFID tags to track retail products from manufacture through sale and beyond, as well as track individuals and their movements.

 

•     Hybrid vehicles. Automobiles available to the mass market with power systems that combine internal com­bustion and other power sources.
•     Pervasive sensors. Presence of sensors in most public areas and networks of sensor data to accomplish wide­spread real-time surveillance.
•     Tissue engineering. The design and engineering of living tissue for implantation and replacement.
Biotechnologies and nanotechnologies are two technologies that are quite controversial in some countries, especially in Europe. They both elicit fear, and their costs and benefits depend on how they are incorporated into societies and eco­systems and whether there is the will to fairly share benefits as well as costs. They may have important potential impacts on agriculture and food systems (Scott and Chen, 2003).

5.3.5 Financial resources devoted to science and technology: trends and uncertainties

5.3.5.1 Trends
The world devoted 1.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) to R&D in 2002. In 2001, this proportion was 2.74 for the United States, 1.91 for EU-15, 1.9 for Canada and 1.29 for Russia (OST, 2006a) (Table 5-7).
     North America, Europe and Japan dominate the pro­duction of knowledge, but there has been a remarkable growth of gross expenditure on R&D in Asia (27.9% of world share in 1997 and 31.5% in 2002).
     In the United States, industry contributes about 64% of gross expenditures on R&D, in Canada, 48%, in EU-25 54% and in Russia 31% (UNESCO, 2006b).
     With 25 Members, since the accession of ten new coun­tries from Central, Eastern and Southern Europe in May 2004, the European Union now accounts for 90% of Euro­pean gross domestic expenditure on R&D. There is no true European R&D market since there are great discrepancies in R&D capacities between the EU Member States. Even if the new Member States will attract R&D investments, the R&D budget of the European Commission represents just five percent of public expenditure on R&D by Member States. In 2001, Europe accounted for 46.1% of the world's R&D publications (OST, 2006b).
     Since the disintegration of the USSR more than a decade ago, the R&D systems of all these states have been seriously reduced, yet they remain important. The proportion of GDP spent on R&D by the Federation of Russia, for example, was 1.17% in 2004 (OST, 2006a). Moreover, the number of researchers in Russia, 3,400 per million inhabitants, is the third highest in the world after Japan (5,100) and the USA (4,400) (UNESCO, 2006b). Almost 3,650 organiza­tions represent science and research in today's Russia (OST, 2006a).
     The evolution of science and technology is increas­ingly expensive. Each answer gives rise to new questions. Although nations are very much aware of the importance of science and technology for their economy, there are limits to the amounts of money they are willing to spend on it. Con­sequently, nations and businesses must choose which areas of science and technology they will support. As a result of competition for resources, researchers must account for the