5.4.2.3 Consequences for AKST

There are thus a large number of possible future pathways for agricultural policy and trade at national and suprana­tional level within NAE and outside, which in turn will gen­erate different types of farming and agricultural systems.
     If the future is more ecosystem oriented, with exter­nalities   increasingly   internalized,   e.g.,   by   progressively decoupling subsidies from production, more stringent en­vironmental regulations, the introduction of special taxes and different product pricing methods, then AKST should be organized to better support the development of more en­vironmentally-friendly and resource-use efficient technolo­gies and production systems, including all kinds of "green technologies" and supportive policies that contribute to the adoption of such technologies to reduce resource use and farm emissions. Such direction would certainly lead to more integration of agricultural and environmental sciences and more cooperation with the various interest groups involved in natural resources management at different levels. AKST in this setting would still be strongly oriented towards fea­sible technical solutions and require longer term planning and investments.
     If we live, however, in a market-led future, the influence of consumers and their preferences on demand for research would become stronger: issues like food safety (labeling, traceability, etc.) would be in the center and require more comprehensive  attention  by AKST than currently.  Such AKST would be organized differently, and multinational companies might have the lead. In a future that would favor regionalization and local approaches, social equity, reduc­tion of income disparities between urban and rural areas, and more power and political influence to local people, the requirements for AKST would again be very different (Ka-hiluoto et al., 2006). Such a future would also very likely imply changes in attitudes towards consumption and diets, e.g., less meat. Though objectives, organization and fund­ing of AKST have already drastically changed over the last 10 to 20 years (Van Keulen, 2007), further policy adjust­ments would be required to support the development of mechanisms for increased involvement of stakeholders, and a more demand-driven AKST that is increasingly built on interactive knowledge networks (OECD, 1999), and serves

the multiple development goals of rural areas, e.g., through supporting the development of multifunctional agricultural systems. Some recent trends, like special payments for ru­ral development would need to be intensified. The AKST required in such a future, would also need to support the realization of full participation of stakeholders in decisions concerning the design and implementation of agricultural and environmental policies.
     This might be realized by harnessing the power of ICT and appropriate databases with new tools for interactive analysis of alternative land use and policy options for sus­tainable regional development (Van Ittersum et al., 2004). AKST would seek solutions through behavioral changes. It would also need to generate the information required to compare the environmental and social effects of integrated, local versus more specialized, world-market oriented farm­ing systems. The type of AKST required would be fairly interdisciplinary and oriented towards locally tailored solu­tions and their implementation.

5.4.3 Farming systems and farm structures
Farmers are increasingly operating in larger enterprises and within cooperative arrangements as well as through con­tracts with large businesses. This could lead to greater com­plexity and monopolies which could reduce resilience and choices. There is uncertainty about how long this trend will last. It could be altered, for example, by changes in orga­nizational practices and consumer demand and socioeco-nomic research.
     Population figures in rural areas are declining and agro-urban areas are growing. Multiple expectations on farming systems are leading to the development of new enterprises such as agrotourism and are placing emphasis on farming systems that can deliver new services, such as watershed and landscape protection. High demands on agriculture for pro­viding energy could change this trend.

5.4.3.1 Ongoing trends
The term agricultural system (or agrosystem) is a concept that has been in continuous evolution over the last few de­cades. The great number of elements involved in its defini­tion and their interrelations are partially responsible for this