5.1.2.3 At North American level

North America (NA) has a large number of studies on the future of agriculture and/or AKST, but there is no coordina­tion or networking among organizations, hence the studies are difficult to collect. More prominently than in Europe, the role of technology is a commonly addressed element in foresight exercises.
     Beyond the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) which does not reveal the results of studies, the National Intelli­gence Council (NIC) is a centre for midterm and long-term strategic thinking. The "Mapping the global future" report looks at the world in 2020 (NIC, 2004).
     As far as agriculture is concerned, the Economic Re­search Service (ERS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) conducts a research program to inform public and private decision making on economic and policy issues in­volving food, farming, natural resources, and rural develop­ment. ERS specialists, for example, provide wide-ranging research and analysis on production, consumption, and trade of key agricultural commodities and on agricultural policies of countries and regions important to U.S. agriculture, as well as on international trade agreements and food security issues. The Economic Research Service (USDA/ERS) has de­veloped the SWOPSIM model (Static World Policy Simu­lation Model) to study the interaction of US policies with those of the rest of world. (See http://www.ers.usda.gov/).
     Universities are also very active in trade modeling. The University of Purdue, for example, has developed GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project), a data base and a model on production, consumption and trade.
     The World Technology Evaluation Center, Inc. (WTEC) is a US organization conducting international technology assessments via expert review. For example, report on con­verging technologies (nanotechnology, biotechnology, infor­mation technology and cognitive science) have been written for the National Science Foundation (NSF) (Roco and Bain-bridge, 2002; Bainbridge and Roco, 2006).
     The Department of Interior (DOI) has conducted a study "Water 2025" which sets a framework to focus on meeting water supply challenges in the future (US DOI, 2005).
     The  application of nanotechnology in precision ag­riculture is a recurring theme. Producers could have near real-time data from every plant or animal (Fletcher, 2007; Western Farm Press, 2007); computers would automatically collect and analyze the information. These data would allow producers to detect and correct disease infections, pest infes­tations, nutrient/water deficiencies, etc. before there is any significant effect on the plant/animal. This type of system would allow precise targeting (and tremendous reductions) of medicines, pesticides, nutrients and water. Much of the process would be completely automated; problems could be addressed or prevented (Catlett, 2003). Combinations of de­tection technology and global positioning technology would allow detection and precise location information. Pesticides, nutrients and water could be used more efficiently and with fewer environmental effects.
     The application of technology will also be a response to demographic changes in North America (NA). Slow pop­ulation growth, combined with an aging population, will reduce the labor pool available for agriculture. However, increased mechanization of North America agriculture will

reduce the number of workers needed for an agricultural operation (McCalla, 2000). Although the workers will have to assess and apply much more information, computer assis­tance and automated responses will minimize the manpower requirements.
     Consumer demands are also a common element in many of the foresight reports. In part, the application of technol­ogy will be driven by consumer demands. The North Ameri­can demand for food quantity is expected to be mostly static, but greater affluence and consumer knowledge will create a demand for product differentiation. An aging, health con­scious NA population will ask for greater health benefits and fewer risks from food. Biotechnology can be used to manipulate nutritional qualities of foods and reduce chemi­cal inputs remaining on foods.
     Additionally, affluent consumers are more knowledge­able about environmental issues and more likely to pay a premium for products that have been produced/processed with attention to environmental or social issues (Univ. Geor­gia, 2000). Technology can provide the means to track indi­vidual food items or food components from the field to the table (Western Farm Press, 2007). Consumers will be able to make buying decisions based a wide range of nutritional, environmental and social factors.
     Greater affluence is also associated with an increased demand for meat in the diet. Because the typical diet in NA is already based on meat, the demand in NA is unlikely to change significantly. However, increasing affluence in other countries will most likely strengthen the export market for meat produced in NA. Additionally, there will be greater demand for grains to produce meat animals.
     Aging and affluence will also generate greater demand for additional processing of food products (Western Farm Press, 2007). Aging consumers, in particular, are willing to pay more for convenience. Consequently, there will be a greater demand in NA for prepared foods or products that can be prepared quickly and easily.
     All of these consumer factors will combine to create a broad, varied market for differentiated products. Some groups of people will be most interested in food properties (e.g., nutrition, flavor, or convenience); others will choose agricultural products based on concomitant environmental impacts of production. Technology and rapid global com­munication will allow consumers to evaluate a wide range of factors and to identify/track agricultural products from the field to their home.
     There are reports that discuss the importance of multi­functional agricultural systems and underline the need for greater public awareness and support of multifunctionality (McCalla, 2000; Tilman et al., 2002). Affluent consum­ers are not concerned about food supply and have greater knowledge of the environment. They are more likely to pay for environmental services (e.g., wildlife habitat or water­sheds) associated with agricultural production.
     Agriculture will provide new products and services. Genetically modified plants and animals will produce many different pharmaceuticals and raw materials for industry. In NA, agriculture will become a major source of energy (Ugarte  et  al.,  2006).  Modified plants  and  agricultural waste products will be converted to fuel. This industry will expand into a leading market for agriculture, providing a