retailers. This means that demand for farm produce is no longer restricted to nearby markets. Rather, industrializa­tion has increased the accessibility of goods and services to include distant consumers and suppliers as well. These trends will accelerate in developing countries into the fu­ture. Globalization is also likely to result in greater product diversification to supply new and varied markets. Techno­logical change in agricultural production, improvements in rural infrastructure and diversification in food demand patterns will trigger product diversification toward high value food products (Pingali, 2004). Demand for organic agricultural products has been growing faster than overall food markets, particularly in developed countries for some time, and the expected continuation of this growth trend into the future could have substantive positive implications for local land management, biodiversity, food security and rural livelihoods (El-Hage Scialabba and Williamson, 2004; UNCTAD, 2006).
     The effects of trade liberalization could have signifi­cant growth benefits translating into poverty alleviation in developing Asia, reflecting the importance of agricultural incomes. The removal of tariffs and agricultural subsidies on agriculture and food is expected to significantly improve market  access  for  developing  countries   (Anderson  and Martin, 2006). Estimates of a 48% increase in exports of agriculture and food from China, a 17% increase from In­donesia, 13% increase from the Philippines, 88% increase from India, 24% increase from Bangladesh, 35% increase from other East Asia and a 10% reduction from Viet Nam are reported (Hertel and Keeney, 2006). These improve­ments in market access are not without potential downsides; globalization involves the transportation of products over much greater distances and thus also increases the energy inputs required to move products from source to markets (see 4.2.9). There are visible trends of environmental deg­radation following in the wake of increasing globalization and trade liberalization, especially when production of high-value crops or commodities draw upon limited water re­sources, use chemicals or pesticides in excessive doses, add to energy consumption in agriculture, and worsen employment opportunities for women (unskilled) and marginal popula­tions, forcing them to resort to further exploitation of frag-

ile resources like ground water, forest land, protected species of wildlife, etc. (MA, 2005; Nijam, 2005; UNEP, 2006) (see 4.2.5).
     Moreover, if improvements in market access are lim­ited, e.g., barriers to trade in agricultural products remain in place in the large EU and United States markets, this could have serious negative implications for developing countries including those in the ESAP region. A significant question moving forward in the liberalization negotiations is whether developing countries should aim for a reduction in barriers in developed countries or pursue maintained or expanded preferential treatment (Binswanger and Lutz, 2000).

4.2.3     Implications of growth for agriculture
The implications of economic growth prospects on poverty reduction will be significant over the period to 2030 (Table 4-3). Different assumptions about capital and labor mobility will influence future economic growth prospects in the ESAP region. Estimates of poverty reduction in Asia in the future will depend on key assumptions including (1) the nature of growth and redistributive policies, (2) the benchmark of ab­ject poverty (less than $1 per day and less than $2 per day), and (3) the inclusion of China and the impact of its polices on poverty reduction (in contrast to India—where little ef­fort or impact is evident). The projected decline in poverty in Asia as a whole is positively affected by the inclusion of China (and its policies) and negatively influenced by the relative inability of some developing countries to make the necessary investments for economic growth (Roland-Holst et al., 2005). If the ESAP member countries can sustain the rate of growth they experienced during the period 2000-2004, then it is likely that all the countries will be able to meet their income and poverty eradication targets by 2015 (ADB, 2005). Further, if these rates of growth are sustained over the next decade, then these countries can completely eradicate abject poverty of less than $1 per capita per day by 2025 (ADB, 2005).

4.2.3.1   Food consumption and demand
Projections indicate that as population growth rates decline and countries become richer, demand for food will continue to grow, albeit at a declining rate. The annual average rate