Food Systems and Agricultural Products and Services towards 2050 | 87

ssa_4_4-1

Figure 4-1. Potential for ethanol fuel production from molasses in southern Africa. Source: Based on CARENSA
scenarios, Woods et al., 2005.

not currently suitable for crop production and would require large investments in irrigation and other infrastructure before it could produce crops. In addition to these economic barriers, a large-scale expansion of agricultural production for biofuels would also encounter environmental limits in the form of water availability and threats to natural vegetation and forests (Berndes et al., 2003). Climate change will also affect these factors in the envisioned timeframe. Finally, increasing the demand for biomass for biofuels production could have considerable impact on food prices—threatening food security for many poor net buyers of food.

 Agricultural energy requirements and consumption. It is highly likely that towards 2050 many countries in sub- Saharan Africa will continue to have some of the lowest per capita energy consumption levels in the world. The projected increase in yields and production in agriculture as a result of energy inputs can lead to important social and environmental gains. Agro-industrial growth will in itself increase energy requirements (Smeets et al., 2007). An assessment of the region’s future agricultural energy demand and supply is complex due to unique social and political elements as well as concerns for the food security of millions of people. The past and present energy situation in Africa’s agricultural sector has been analyzed systematically, showing that agricultural productivity in sub-Saharan Africa will continue to be closely associated with direct and indirect energy inputs, and there will be continued need for policies to consolidate this relationship for the benefit of

 

farmers and agroecosystems in the region (FAO, 2006a). However, for this to materialize there will be a need, unlike in the past decades, to design and implement agricultural development and extension plans that pay due regard to this synergy. The Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Program (CAADP) of the NEPAD is poised to drive the region’s agriculture and foods systems toward this goal (NEPAD, 2004).

 The future relationship between agriculture and energy will largely be shaped by direct and indirect drivers of changing farming systems and patterns (traditional vs. mechanized vs. irrigated) that will alter energy efficiency and production characteristics. The changes in the agricultural yield that will come with an increase in energy and chemical as well as changes in agricultural and post harvest processing technologies like crop curing, drying and processing will also play part. An IFPRI-sponsored assessment concludes that although many questions remain unresolved, there will continue to be synergy between bioenergy, development and agricultural sustainability in SSA (Hazell and Pachauri, 2006). The IMPACT model (Rosegrant et al., 2002) presents scenarios for biofuels that offer understanding for biofuel growth and productivity specific to SSA. The particular challenge will be reconciling food and fuel demand tradeoffs. In the absence of a solution to this tradeoff, the use of cassava and other agricultural crops as bioenergy feedstock is highly likely to raise agricultural prices leading to sizeable welfare losses—especially for the poorest strata
of society.