The “World Energy Outlook” (IEA, 2005) paints a picture of how the global energy system is likely to evolve from now to 2050. If sub-Saharan Africa governments stick with current energy policies, the region’s energy needs will be almost 60% higher in 2030 than they are now. A similar trajectory will see this trend persisting until 2050. Whether this rising demand for energy can be met and how it will be supplied will depend on government policies and investment patterns. In any event, fossil fuels will continue to dominate the region’s energy mix, meeting most of the increase in overall energy use. However, the contribution of agricultural energy production is predicted to increase, although it will continue to be dominated by the polluting and unsustainable combustion of traditional bioenergy, e.g., fuel wood and agricultural residues burned in inefficient cookstoves (Demirbas, 2007). Given the considerable social and environmental costs (including gender inequality, indoor air pollution and deforestation) of traditional bioenergy, the challenge for the next decades will remain the need to increase energy efficiency (improved stoves and charcoal making techniques) and to promote modern energy sources (to enhance agricultural productivity and for rural services such as electricity).

 Modern bioenergy will present one option for improving access to modern and efficient energy services but it will be a challenge to exploit existing agroecosystems efficiently and sustainably without unduly disrupting the food systems.

 Bioenergy offers considerable potential for an expansion of electricity and heat production, especially in the form of biomass cogeneration (e.g., from sugarcane bagasse). Some sugar-producing countries (e.g., Mauritius) have already expanded their cogeneration capacity and it is very likely that more African countries will follow this path of efficient and low-cost energy production (IEA, 2005; Woods, 2006). Various technologies are also being developed that could increase the attractiveness of bioenergy for the provision of modern energy in small-scale rural applications. Technologies ranging from biogas to unrefined bio-oils could contribute to meeting local energy needs through the integration of energy production with agricultural and forestry activities (see chapter 6, IAASTD Global Report).

 With respect to liquid biofuels, it is highly likely that with the removal or easing of barriers to its trade, the biofuel industry—including ethanol and biodiesel produced from crops—will have far-reaching effects on sub-Saharan African agriculture. It is however difficult to foresee the welfare effects this would bring about. On the one hand, novel development opportunities may arise in countries with significant agricultural resources. The region, with its significant sugar cane and sweet sorghum production suitability, could profit from Brazil’s experience and technology (FAO, 2006a). The scenarios by the Cane Resources Network for Southern Africa (CARENSA) indicate a potential for the production of bioethanol from sugar crops in southern Africa in magnitudes that could meet domestic demands and export markets in the region (Figure 4-1).

 On the other hand, the comparatively high costs of sugar production in Africa will pose a significant challenge for ethanol development. Moreover, much of the land on which the above scenarios are based is remotely located or