276 | IAASTD Global Report

Figure 4-14. Agricultural food business chain. Source: Based on stock market data* and World Bank, 2005b.

Note: CR5 represents the market share of the top five companies listed in the global retail industry.
* http://www.wsj.com

these studies tend to asymptotically reach maximum avail­ability levels of 3,500-4,000 kcal per capita (Tables 4-10, 4-11; Figures 4-15, 4-16, 4-17).
•   The global consumption of meats and milk, fats, and sugars increases considerably, while consumption of roots and tubers, pulses, and cereals as food is stable or slightly declines.
•   In regions with an average total daily consumption of less then 2500 kcal per capita (sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia) the situation slightly improves over time, but in 2050 the average food intake is still significantly lower then in other regions.
•   In regions with low access to calories, food consumption increases in general more in more globalizing worlds (A1b, B1—IPCC SRES scenarios; Policy First—GEO-3 UNEP; GO—Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Glo­bal Orchestration scenario).
•   In regions with high average total daily consumption the consumption remains stable or increases only slightly, with little or no differentiation between the scenarios.

 

 

•   In middle-income regions  (South East Asia, Central America,  South  America)  food  consumption  slowly rises towards the level of OECD countries; with little differentiation across the scenarios.
•   Differences in the consumption of animal products are much greater than in total food availability: both be­tween regions, between scenarios and between years.
•   Food demand for livestock products more or less dou­bles in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia from around 200 in 2000 to around 400 kcal d-1 by 2050; again with the highest values in globalizing scenarios. Consump­tion levels by 2050 can surpass 600 kcal/day in parts of Africa and South Asia.
•   In most OECD countries with already high availability of kilocalories from animal products (1000 calories per capita per day or more) consumption levels are expect­ed to barely change, while levels in South America and countries of the Former Soviet Union increase to OECD levels.

Table 4-9. Incorporation of changing food demand patterns in global assessment studies.

No.

Assessment Title

Publication Date

Projections timeframe

Food demand mentioned

Projections follow/adapted from

1

GEO-3 Assessment

2002

2032

 

FAO (2015/2030 outlook)

2

GEO-4 Assessment

2007

2000-2050

Explicitly

IFPRI IMPACT

3

IPCC 3rd Assessment

2001

Various

Not explicitly

Various, IPCC-SRES

4

IPCC 4th Assessment

2007

Various

Not explicitly

Various, IPCC-SRES

5

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

2005

2000-2100

Explicitly

IFPRI IMPACT

 

Comprehensive

 

 

 

 

6

Assessment of Water Management in

2007

2000-2050

Explicitly

Watersim, based on IFPRI IMPACT

 

Agriculture

 

 

 

 

7

OECD Outlook

2006 Draft

2000-2030

Not explicitly

Partly FAO

8

World Energy Outlook

2006

2030

Not explicitly

-

Sources: UNEP, Global Environmental Outlook, 2002; IPCC, 2001, 2007; MA, 2005; de Fraiture et al., 2007; OECD, 2006; IEA, 2006.