4.4.1.4 Implications for health
Changes in food demand to 2050 are expected to contribute to increased nutrition and human health. Dietary diversifica­tion will likely increase if urbanization and income growth proceed. On the other hand, obesity rates and associated diseases are expected to increase. Obesity is increasingly becoming a public health concern as it contributes to in­creased mortality through noncommunicable diseases such as diabetes, hypertension, stroke, and cardiovascular diseas­es, among others. Factors responsible for increases in obe­sity include a mix of biological and ecological factors such as gene-mediated adaptation, increases in labor mechaniza­tion, urbanization, sedentary activities and lifestyle changes (Caballero, 2001). It is estimated that by 2020, 60% of the disease burden in developing countries will result from non-communicable diseases, further exacerbated because of obe­sity (Caballero, 2001).

4.4.2 Natural resources
The sustainable use and management of natural resources presents a critical factor for future agriculture. The develop-

ment and adoption of appropriate AKST and management practices will be needed to ensure food security and agri­cultural livelihoods. One of the greatest challenges likely to continue facing global agriculture is resolving conflicts caused by growing competition for soil, water, and other natural resources on which agriculture depends (Antle and Capalbo, 2002). Conversely, the sustainable management of these natural resources will determine productivity in agri­culture and food systems.

4.4.2.1 Water
Water availability for agriculture is one of the most criti­cal factors for food security in many regions of the world, particularly in arid and semiarid regions in the world, where water scarcity has already become a severe constraint on food production (Rockstrom et al., 2003; CA, 2007). With increasing population,  urbanization, changing  diets  and higher living standards water demand is increasing rapidly. Assuming the amount of potentially utilizable water does not increase, there will be less water available on a per capi­ta basis. In 1989, approximately 9,000 m3 of freshwater per

World

1969/71

1979/81

1989/91

1999/01

2030

2050

Cereals, food

148.7

160.1

171

165.4

165

162

Cereals, all uses

302.8

325

329.3

308.7

331

339

Roots and tubers

83.7

73.4

64.5

69.4

75

75

Sugar (raw sugar equiv.)

22.4

23.4

23.3

23.6

26

27

Pulses, dry

7.6

6.5

6.2

5.9

6

6

Vegetable oils, oilseeds and products (oil equiv.)

6.8

8.3

10.3

12

16

17

Meat (carcass weight)

26.1

29.5

33

37.4

47

52

Milk and dairy, excl. butter (fresh milk equiv.)

75.3

76.5

76.9

78.3

92

100

Other food (kcal/person/day)

216

224

241

289

325

340

Total food (kcal/person/day)

2411

2549

2704

2789

3040

3130