Outlook on Agricultural Change and Its Drivers

Coordinating Lead Authors Detlef P. van Vuuren (the Netherlands), Washington O. Ochola (Kenya), Susan Riha (USA)
Lead Authors Mario Giampietro (Spain/Italy), Hector Ginzo (Argentina), Thomas Henrichs (Germany), Sajidin Hussain (Pakistan), Kasper Kok (the Netherlands), Moraka Makhura (South Africa), Monirul Mirza (Canada), K.P. Palanisami (India), C.R. Ranganathan (India), Sunil Ray (India), Claudia Ringler (Germany), Agnes Rola (Philippines), Henk Westhoek (Netherlands), Monika Zurek (Germany)
Contributing Authors Patrick Avato (Germany/Italy), Gustavo Best (Mexico), Regina Birner (Germany), Kenneth Cassman (USA), Charlotte de Fraiture (Netherlands), Bill Easterling (USA), John Idowu (Nigeria), Prabhu Pingali (USA), Steve Rose (USA), Phil Thornton (UK), Stan Wood (UK)
Review Editors Sandra Brown (UK) and Suat Oksuz (Turkey)


Key Messages

4.1 Driving Forces of Agricultural Change 257
4.2 Recent International Assessments 258
4.3 Indirect Drivers of Agricultural Change 260
4.3.1 Demographic drivers  260
4.3.2 Economics and international trade 263
4.3.3 Sociopolitical drivers of alternative futures in agriculture and AKST 268
4.3.4 Science and technology 270
4.3.5 Education, culture and ethics 272
4.3.6 Changes in biogeophysical environment 273
4.4 Assessment of Direct Drivers 274
4.4.1 Food consumption patterns 274
4.4.2 Natural resources 277
4.4.3 Land use and land cover change 281
4.4.4 Climate variability and climate change 284
4.4.5 Energy 288
4.4.6 Labor 292
4.5 Existing Assessments of Future Food Systems, Agricultural Products and Services 293
4.5.1 Assessments relevant for changes in food systems 293
4.5.2 Indication of projected changes 294
4.6 Relevance for Development and Sustainability Goals and AKST in the Future 299
4.6.1 What development and sustainability goals can to be addressed through AKST? 299
4.6.2 What are the conditions needed to help AKST realize development and sustainability goals? 300