258 | IAASTD Global Report

Figure 4-1. The conceptual framework of IAASTD.

changes in rates of investments in research and devel­opment and the rates of adoption of new technologies, including biotechnologies and information technologies (4.3.4);
5     Education, cultural and religious developments, includ­ing changes in choices individuals make about what and how much to consume and what they value (4.3.5);
6     Global environmental change, including nutrient cy­cling, water availability, biodiversity and soil quali­ty—all of which are affected by global environmental change (4.3.6).

In addition, a number of direct drivers relevant to agricul­tural systems are discussed in this chapter and outlooks on how they might unfold over the coming decades presented, again based on published literature—the main direct drivers presented in this chapter are:
1.    Changes in food consumption patterns, i.e., consump­tions levels of crops and meat products (4.4.1);
2.    Land use change, i.e., land availability as a constraint to agriculture (4.4.2);
3.    Natural resource management, i.e., the impact of ag­riculture on natural resources and the constraints of natural resource availability and management on agri­culture (4.4.3);
4.    Climate change, i.e., the impacts of climate change on agriculture (4.4.4);


5.    Energy, i.e., the relationship between energy and agri­culture and the impact of large-scale bioenergy produc­tion (4.4.5);
6.    Labor, i.e., the relationship between agriculture and the demand and supply of labor force (4.4.6).

Looking across the expected developments of the different individual driving forces presented in this chapter gives a first idea of how agricultural systems and their role in pro­viding agricultural products and services might unfold over the coming decades (4.5). The future role of and options for AKST in agricultural development are explored in detail in the remainder of this report. To inform this discussion, this chapter concludes by highlighting some of the key uncer­tainties for future agricultural changes as well as for AKST as identified in current literature and recent international assessments (Figure 4-2).

4.2 Recent International Assessments

Recent international assessments provide a wealth of infor­mation about expected or plausible future developments— either by directly providing an outlook on expected devel­opments in agriculture or by discussing possible develop­ments of key driving forces and pressures that shape the future of agricultural systems. None of the existing global assessments, however, has addressed the role of and future