(3) shifts in demographic patterns, (4) growing urbaniza­tion, (5) changes in women's roles, (6) an enhanced under­standing of the impact of diets on health, (7) government interventions towards certain foods, (8) influence exerted by the food industry, (9) growing international trade, and (10) an increasing globalization of tastes (Schmidhuber, 2003). Urbanization is generally associated with factors like higher incomes, more opportunities for women to enter the paid-work sector; and a major boost in the amount of informa­tion, goods and services. In relation to dietary habits this translates into access to a large variety of food products, ex­posure to different, "globalized" dietary patterns, adoption of urban lifestyles with less physically intensive activities requiring less food energy, and a preference for precooked, convenient food. Moreover, urbanization entails a physical separation of the agricultural sector from the postharvest sector and the final consumption sector (Smil, 2000; Gi-ampietro, 2003; Schmidhuber, 2003).

Shifts in food expenditures. Decisions on food purchases will continue to be related to other household expenditure choices, such as housing, clothing, education, and health costs. With greater affluence the number of low-income countries that spend a greater portion of their budget on basic necessities, including food, will decline (Seale et al., 2003). Shifts in food expenditures for selected countries (see Table 4-8) with expected slow declines in food budget shares over time as well as slow declines in expenditures on grains are also projected (Cranfield et al., 1998).

Changes in agricultural production and retailing systems. The nutritional transformation will induce changes in ag­ricultural production systems. Increased consumption of livestock products, e.g., will drive expansion of maize pro­duction for animal feed. Given that diets will continue to change with increasing incomes and urbanization, a dou­bling of cereal yields may be required. Because of the high rate of conversion of grains to meat, some analysts have ar­gued that a reduction in meat consumption in industrialized countries, either through voluntary changes in dietary pat­terns, or through policies such as taxes on livestock, would shift cereal consumption from livestock to poor people in developing countries (e.g., Brown, 1995). While the long-term prospects for food supply, demand, and trade indicate a strengthening of world cereal and livestock markets, the improvement in food security in the developing world will be slow and changes in the dietary patterns in industrialized countries are not an effective route to improve food security in developing countries (Rosegrant et al., 1999).

     At the same time, the agricultural production sector is catering more to globalized diets through growing industri­alization and intensification of the food production process. Retailing through supermarkets is growing at 20% per an­num in some countries and is expected to penetrate most developing countries over the next decades, as urban con­sumers demand more processed foods, shifting agricultural production systems from on-farm production toward agri­business chains. International supermarket chains directly accelerate the nutritional transformation; e.g., the increase in the availability of yogurt and pasteurized milk has led to increases in consumption of dairy products in Brazil. Super­markets will emerge in China and most other Asian develop­ing countries, and more slowly in sub-Saharan Africa over the next three to five decades. The penetration of supermar­kets for 42 countries based on the major drivers of change, including income, income distribution, urbanization, female participation in the labor force and openness to foreign com­petition through foreign direct investment, explains 90% of the variation in supermarket shares (Traill, 2006). Income growth was an important determinant for further super­market penetration in Latin America, and further income growth and urbanization are crucial determinants for future supermarket growth in China (Traill, 2006).
     The food retailing sector will increasingly serve as the primary interface between consumers and the rest of the agricultural sector (Figure 4-14). Food processing indus­tries and supermarkets are expected improve food safety and support dietary diversification; on the other hand, they might contribute to less healthy diets through retailing of less healthy foods, such as refined white flour with reduced levels of fibers, minerals, and vitamins, or through oil hy-drogenation processes.

4.4.1.2 Changing food consumption patterns in global assessments
Studies focusing on food and agriculture have seldom pro­jected changes in food consumption patterns to 2050 at the global level; most projections in this area focus at the national level (Bhalla et al., 1999). Only two food and ag­riculture focused studies have done so: the FAO World Ag­riculture Outlook towards 2030/2050 interim report (FAO, 2006b) and IFPRI's food supply and demand projections (Von Braun et al., 2005 using the IFPRI IMPACT model) (Table 4-9).
     Most studies and assessments agree that overall calorie availability continues to increase and dietary diversification continues following country and locale-specific pathways of nutritional transformation. Calorie availability levels in