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90 | Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) Report

       Commercial fish farming systems will be characterized by higher levels of management, capital investment, higher levels of quality control and a more complex and structured market (FAO, 2006cd). These systems will involve different levels of intensification and will be dominated by large scale producers such as Nigeria, South Africa and Madagascar although countries like Côte d’Ivoire, Republic of Congo, Ghana and Kenya will also experience rapid progress. Seaweed and prawn culture is likely to expand in coastal areas and small island states. South Africa and Namibia will lead high value fish farming such as abalone (FAO, 2006c). The region is also likely to see a growth in mussel and oyster culture and an expansion of non-food aquaculture technologies. Cichlids (Oreochromis and Tilapia spp.) will continue to be most commonly used species, though polyculture with Clarias gariepinus and Cyprinus carpio will emerge in some countries. It will be important for SSA countries to develop fisheries monitoring and diagnostic tools in order to respond to environmental changes (Neiland et al., 2005).

 Local and regional fish trade in SSA has the potential to expand and help stimulate markets at multiple levels. Market expansion at the domestic level will lead to quality and safety measures needed to increase global trade (Delgado et al., 2003). SSA fish producers, processors and marketers will have to increasingly contend with stringent quality requirements and standards set for fish products. The competiveness of fish products from sub-Saharan Africa will remain critical for the survival of the industry (Ponte et al., 2005, 2007). The future of aquaculture and fisheries will also depend on enforcement of eco-labels on marine products (based on FAO guidelines) and certified fish production standards worldwide. The roadmap set by NEPAD (NEPAD, 2005) for fisheries development provide policy guidelines for improvement while local management options exist for ensuring that competitiveness in the world markets is achieved (Raakjaer-Nielsen et al., 2004; Astorkiza et al., 2006; Hegland, 2006; Raakjaer-Nielsen and Hara, 2006; Wilson et al., 2006).

4.2 The Evolution of Agricultural Products and Services toward 2050

4.2.1 Cereals, roots and tubers
Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to have a cereal shortage to 2050. Overall baseline projections to 2020 show an increaseTable 4-2. 2010 projections of sub-Saharan Africa fish production.

Table 4-2. 2010 projections of sub-Saharan Africa fish production.

Scenarios
Pessimistic
Optimistic
 
Million tonnes
Capture fisheries
80
105
Aquaculture production
27
39
Total production
107
144
Less fish for nonfood uses
33
30
Available for human
consumption
74
114
 

in cereal use for animal feed because of increased demand for meat (Rosegrant et al., 2001). By 2020 despite positive growth rates in cereal production (Figure 4-4) and production increases through cultivated land expansion, SSA will not be able to meet cereal demands. High food import levels may be economically and politically unsustainable. If SSA has high population growth and sluggish economic performance, it will likely face food shortages. SSA’s projected lack of foreign exchange may weaken their ability to pay for food imports (Rosegrant et al., 2001) (Figures 4-5 and 4-6).

 Projections highlight that it is unlikely that sub-Saharan Africa will follow the same path as Asia toward rapid agricultural growth, because SSA faces different constraints, such as higher costs of water exploitation, and limited transportation and communications infrastructure. Future increases in crop production will have to come from more intensive production on existing agricultural land or land expansion (MA, 2005abc). More intensive agricultural production will have to be accompanied by improved natural resources management, substantial investments in agricultural inputs, such as fertilizer and irrigation, and roads, clean water, and education.

 Roots and tubers are projected to increase in importance because of their adaptability to marginal environments (IPCC, 2007). Projections of output and consumption patterns for roots and tubers in SSA are based on the end use and show an overall trend toward greater specialization in end use and an increase in the variety of production systems (Scott, et al., 2000). Cassava and sweet potato, for example, will increasingly be used in processed form for food, feed
and starch-derived products (Table 4-3 and 4-4). Non-food and non-feed uses will grow in volume as a result of technologies that enhance varietal characteristics and reduce production costs. As urbanization increases, more people will purchase processed food.

4.2.2 Meat, dairy and poultry production
Worldwide, demand for meat is projected to rise by more than 55% (Figure 4-7) between 1997 and 2020, with most of the increase occurring in developing countries (Rosegrant et al., 2001). Baseline projections towards 2020 indicate that poultry will account for 40% of the global increase in demand for meat, far higher than the 28% it accounted for in 1997, reflecting a shift in taste from red meat to chicken (Figure 4-8).To meet the rise in demand for meat, farmers will need to grow more cereals, particularly, maize for animal feed rather than for human uses.

4.2.3 Horticulture and nonfood products
ICT would have to support trade development in the coming decades with information on technologies for handling, processing and marketing (including markets and products) horticultural and nonfood products. High quality products coupled with an investor-friendly environment would boost trade in nonfood products.

 Cotton and fiber products. The cotton textile industry in SSA will require creative and innovative management to be competitive. Government’s role will be to create an enabling

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