lution of two years and a spatial resolution of 1 km. CLUE-s provides a cross-sectoral approach that includes all land use relevant sectors, while the ESIM, CAPRI and LEITAP/IM-AGE models mainly address the land use of agricultural sec­tors. The results indicate that the structural changes, i.e., decline of agricultural contribution to total income and em­ployment, will continue at national level. Regions with high shares of agriculture and industries may be vulnerable to this process with regard to employment and income growth, as the structural change process is often characterized by adjustment processes and related costs. The impacts of each scenario on production, employment, land use, etc. are de­tailed in the Scenar 2020 report.
     EURURALIS mainly sketches different alternative fu­ture directions and their consequences while Scenar 2020 performs a sensitivity analysis with regard to very precise policy modifications. Each has its advantages. SCENAR 2020  identifies  demographic  dynamics  as the  strongest driver, now and probable also for the future rural world. In general, the SCENAR study concludes that the economic importance of agriculture will continue to decline although agriculture will remain a significant land use with an in­creasing role in managing externalities such as landscape and biodiversity. In 2020, there will be fewer farms but they will be more competitive at global scale, and they will enjoy higher average income and higher productivity.
     FFRAF  (Foresight  food,  rural  and  agrifutures)  was launched by the Standing Committee on Agricultural Re-

search (SCAR) of the European Commission to identify possible scenarios for European agriculture in a 20-year perspective and priority research needs for the medium and long term. FFRAF shows that the European Union is at the beginning of a major disruption period in terms of interna­tional competitiveness, climate change, energy supply, food security and societal problems of health and unemployment. It points to the need for a new strategic framework for re­search planning and delivery. The framework needs to cater for four broad lines of action and a fifth cross-cutting theme, respectively:   sustainability  challenge,   security  challenge, knowledge challenge, competitiveness challenge and policy and institutional challenge (FFRAF, 2007).
     A number of exercises have also been conducted for the EU's East European countries, such as Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, etc. For example, the ForeTech project looked at technology and innovation related to agriculture, food and drinks for Bulgaria and Romania. Another study analyzed the potential evolution of agricultural income and the viability of selected farming systems in the Czech Re­public, Hungary, Latvia, Poland and Romania under differ­ent Common Agricultural Policy implementation scenarios (Cristoiu et al., 2006).     
     The UK, Finland, Germany, The Netherlands, Ireland, Norway, Sweden, Romania, France, etc. have all conducted foresight studies on the future of the agricultural sector and/ or the future of science and technology in their countries (Table 5-2).