322 | IAASTD Global Report

Box 5-1. continued

will be able to export a fairly large number of agricultural prod­ucts to China. China's open trade regime and rising demand will increase the consumption of imported soybeans and other edible oils, maize, cotton, sugar, tropical and subtropical fruits, as well as some livestock products (e.g., milk, beef and mutton).

    Incomes will increase across all segments of the income distri­bution in China. The rises will come, in part from agriculture. How­ever, most of the growth will be based on rising nonagricultural activities, including off farm wages and self employment earn­ings. On average, per capita income will rise about 6% annually over the next two decades and 3-5% annually during the period from 2020-2050. Income growth from agriculture will be positive, but much lower. China's rapid economic growth and the rise in the nation's overall wealth will be accompanied by widening income inequality unless substantial efforts are undertaken to directly support the poor. Since most of the poor in China have land, im­proving agriculture and other activities in farming areas will posi­tive affect the welfare of the poorest people in rural China.

 

 

     As growth proceeds, China will significantly reduce its popula­tion under the poverty line. In 2001, about 11% of China's rural population was below the US$1/day poverty line (Table 5-29). With rising incomes from both the agricultural and nonagricul­tural sectors, the share of the poor in the total rural population is expected to be reduced to 5.4% by 2010 and to less than 1 % by 2020. Moreover, under the reference run, the share of the rural population that lives in poverty would essentially be completely eliminated after 2022, a level of reduction that is faster than the targets suggested under the Millennium Development Goals of the United Nations. Specifically, the poorest 20% of China's households (based on their income levels in 2001) are expected to reduce their population share from 22.6% in 2001 to 3.9% by 2030 (Table 5-29). After about 2035, the entire rural population in the lowest income class (quintile) is expected to have graduated to the second or even third income quintiles.

Table 5-29. Population shares by income group in rural China (in percent).

Income group

2001

2010

2020

2030

2050

Under poverty

11.0

5.4

0.9

0.0

0.0

By household income in 2001

 

 

 

 

 

1st quintile

22.6

15.8

8.9

3.9

0.0

2nd quintile

21.3

24.0

25.2

25.2

12.3

3rd quintile

20.0

18.9

17.5

16.3

19.1

4th quintile

19.0

17.4

15.2

13.0

7.6

5th quintile

17.0

24.0

33.2

41.6

61.1

Note: Households under poverty means that per capita income is less than 1$/day in PPP. Rural population with less 1$/ day income accounted for 11% of total rural households in 2001. Each quintile of households accounted for 20% of total rural households in 2001, but the shares of population in lower quintiles are more than those in higher quintiles.

Source: CAPSIM reference run.

expected to only grow to 2,738 kilocalories by 2050, com­pared to 3,000 or more calories available, on average, in all other regions. Only the South Asia subregion has similar low gains in calorie availability—at 2,746 calories per cap­ita per day by 2050. Calorie availability is expected to grow fastest in the ESAP region at 630 kilocalories over 2000-2050 (Figure 5-8).

    In the reference run, childhood malnutrition (children of up to 60 months) will continue to decline, but cannot be eradicated by 2050 (Figure 5-9). Childhood malnutrition is projected to decline from 149 million children in 2000 to 130 million children by 2025 and 99 million children by 2050. The decline will be fastest in Latin America at 51%, followed by the CWANA and ESAP regions at 46% and 44%, respectively. Progress is slowest in sub-Saharan Africa—despite significant income growth and rapid area

 

and yield gains as well as substantial progress in supporting services that influence well-being outcomes, such as female secondary education, and access to clean drinking water. By 2050, an increase in child malnutrition of 11% is expected, bringing the total to 33 million children in the region.

Fisheries. The reference run is set up so that the value of landings was optimized throughout the years modeled with effort driving the model. The effort for all fleets is the same as what the effort was in the year 2003 until 2010, and after 2010 only the effort in the small pelagic fleet is allowed to vary. A second reference world was run so that after 2010, the effort in the small pelagic fleet was increased by 2% each year, which represents a modest growth in the sector, in particular carnivorous species which consume much of the small pelagic fish landed through fishmeal and fish oil. The