Previous Return to table of contents   |   Search Reports Next
« Back to weltagrarbericht.de

Outlook on Agricultural Changes and Its Drivers | 261

Table 4-1. Overview of relevant global scenario studies.

  Main focus Character of assessment
GSG Sustainable development Strong focus on storyline, supported by quantitative accounting system
IPCC-SRES Greenhouse gas emissions Modelling supported by simple storylines. Multiple models elaborate the same storyline to map out uncertainties.
IPCC-TAR and AR4 Climate change, causes and impacts Assessment of available literature and some calculations on the basis of IPCC-SRES
UNEP-GEO3/ GEO4 Global environmental change Storylines and modelling; modelling on the basis of linked models
MA Changes in ecosystem services Storylines and modelling; modelling on the basis of linked models
FAO-AT2020 Changes in agriculture Single projection, mostly based on expert judgement.
IFPRI Changes in agriculture Model-based projections
CA Water and agriculture Storylines and modelling; modelling on the basis of linked models

Table 4-2. Key assumptions in different scenario "archetypes".

  Economic optimism Reformed Markets Global SD Regional competition Regional SD Business as Usual
Economic development very rapid rapid ranging from slow to rapid slow ranging from mid to rapid medium (globalisation)
Population growth low low low high medium medium
Technology development rapid rapid ranging from mid to rapid slow ranging from slow to rapid medium
Main objectives economic growth various goals global sustainability security local sustainability not defined
Environmental protection reactive both reactive and proactive proactive reactive proactive both reactive and proactive
Trade globalisation globalisation globalisation trade barriers trade barriers weak globalisation
Policies and institutions policies create open markets policies reduce market failures strong global governance strong national governments local steering; local actors mixed

Note: This table summarises key assumptions in very general terms. Where differences within a set of archetypes exist, broad ranges are indicated.

Table 4-3. Recent scenario-based assessments mapped against scenario “archetypes”.

  IPCC-SRES UNEP GEO-3 GSG MA IFPRI                  FAO
Conventional Markets A1 Markets First Conventional worlds   Optimistic scenario
Reformed Markets   Policies First Policy reform Global Orchestration  
Global SD B1 (B1-450) Sustainability First   TechnoGarden  
Regional Competition A2 Security First Barbarisation Order from Strength Pesimistic scenario
Regional SD B2   Great transitions Adapting Mosaic  
Business as Usual B2       Reference         FAO AT2020 scenario
Previous Return to table of contents   |   Search Reports Next
« Back to weltagrarbericht.de