Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) Report: 83

to address the challenge of food systems in bridging any gaps in relation to development and sustainability goals. The optimistic approach has been adopted in this chapter to futuristically assess the changing face of agriculture in SSA towards 2050. The overall approach to the assessment dwells on answering the question: “What drivers including evolutions in food systems will shape the production and provision of agricultural goods and services in order to meet the projected demands towards 2050?”

4.1.1 Crops and livestock production systems

Climate, land and biodiversity. The climate of sub-Saharan Africa is diverse, and controlled by complex interactions between the oceans, land and atmosphere at local, regional and global scales. On average, Africa is hotter, drier and has less-dependable rainfall than all other regions of the world (ICSU, 2006). Further, considering the high climate dependency at all levels from the individual household to the regional economy, Africa is among the most vulnerable continents to climate change and variability (Fischer et al., 2005; IPCC, 2007). Contemporary sub-Saharan Africa is demonstrably vulnerable to both droughts and floods, with negative impacts on degradation in dry lands and coastal zones. Africa’s vulnerability is likely to increase in the future, because the future is likely to be far hotter, and large areas are projected to become drier and even more rainfallvariable than at present (ICSU, 2006). For many regions in Africa, however, the direction of future rainfall trends, as
well as the magnitude is debated even to the scale of seasonal rainfall forecasts (ICSU, 2006).

In general, Africa has a harsh and increasingly degraded physical environment which, in addition to climatic variability and marked dry seasons, is characterized by fragile ecosystems and chronically low levels of soil fertility which result in land degradation. Projections remain pessimistic about improvements in land degradations in the absence of appropriate institutional, organizational and technological innovations.

The majority of farming systems in SSA are rainfed and only a small area is irrigated despite the higher yield potentials under irrigation (Rosegrant et al., 2002). Except for

soybean, baseline projections to 2025 show no significant changes in the proportions of rainfed and irrigated areas (IAC, 2004). The causes of accelerating biodiversity loss vary between locations and between the major plant and animal groups. Over-harvesting has contributed to declines in fisheries, forest and wildlife (ICSU, 2006; IPCC, 2007). Climate change is projected to be the dominant driver of biodiversity loss by the middle of the 21st century (Von Blottnitz and Curran, 2007). For example, an increase in the loss and degradation of wetlands, mangroves and forests is projected.

An Overview of Some Projected Trends in SSA Crop and Livestock Production
Today, approximately 70% of the SSA population is rural. It is projected that between 2030 and 2050, the agricultural population will decline as a result of the development of other economic sectors (Table 4-1) (Dixon et al., 2001). This has implications for crop and livestock production. The major concern is how to meet the increasing demands of the crop and livestock sectors in an environmentally sustainable way. For the next decades, predictions highlight a reduction in crop yield potentials in most tropical and subtropical regions as a result of climate change and diminishing water resources. With relatively fewer people in the agricultural sector, commercial farming will increase.

It is expected that the information revolution will provide large volumes of technological, market and institutional information to farmers. However, it is unlikely that much of this information will serve the majority of SSA producers without investments in education and training for the rural population. These investments will facilitate the transition to commercial farming. This training will encompass entrepreneurial and technical skills.

4.1.2 Forestry, agroforestry and forestry products
Forests and agroforestry systems and forestry products will continue to fulfill environmental, economic, social, cultural needs as well as important needs for nutrition and health (FAO, 2003). These resources are also projected to continue providing the bulk of energy requirements in the form of

Note: the figures for 2030 correspond to the medium variant of the United Nations projections.
Source: Veron, 2007.

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Continent	Total population (millions)			Urban population (%)
Continent	1950	2007	2030	1950	2007	2030
North America	172	339	405	64	81	87
Latin America & Caribbean	167	572	713	42	78	85
Europe	547	731	707	51	74	80
Oceania	13	34	43	61	73	75
Africa	221	965	1,518	15	41	54
Asia	1,3.98	4,030	4,931	15	41	55
World	2,535	6,671	8,317	29	50	61

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