Looking into the Future for Knowledge, Science and Technology and AKST | 173

consumption can be assessed over the years using indica­tors such as food budget, calorie intake, categories of food­stuffs, home or out-of-home consumption, homemade or precooked meals, quality of food products. Changes in di­etary patterns influence food systems, agricultural products and services, (both food and non-food products) and other ecosystem services. While changes in food demand directly affect the types and quantity of food being produced, and thus affect the AKST used in producing this food, changes in AKST driving food supply can also influence food con­sumption patterns indirectly.
     Growing incomes, reduction in household size, increas­ing number of women in the workforce, changes in the lifestyle with more time constraints, food scares, growing concerns for health and well-being and ethics have influ­enced food consumption in recent years (EC, 2007)
     For the future, the most important trends that can be in­fluenced by AKST seem to be dietary patterns, increased ill­nesses associated with inadequate diets and over-processed food, consumer attitudes with increased consumption of processed and convenience food, and the effects of mass distribution on food consumption.
     The nutritional transformation reached many industri­alized countries in the 19th century, and advanced to many developing countries in the last 50 years or so. In the United States, the fraction of expenditure on food was 25% in 1930, less than 14% in 1970, and around 10% in 1995. In the European Union (EU-27), the fraction of expenditure on food decreased from 14.5% in 1995 to 12.8% in 2006 (Eurostat). North America and Europe are in a situation of "food satiety," with an overabundance of food products on the market but a growing health divide between rich and poor. In countries of NAE, more than 80 kg of meat are consumed per capita every year. This high meat consump­tion entails a huge cereal and water demand and exacer­bates some health problems (e.g., heart disease). All meats do not require the same quantity of vegetal calories for pro­duction; eleven vegetal calories produce one calorie of beef or mutton; eight calories produce one calorie of milk; four calories are needed for one calorie of pork, poultry or egg (Collomb, 1999 cited by Griffon, 2006). At present, the fish/ seafood food group is relatively unimportant as a source of daily protein in Europe (7.2 g-1 day-1 person-1) although its contribution almost matches the average share of beef and veal (7.6 g-1 day-1 person-1). However, the fish/seafood group registers large variations between countries (de Boer et al., 2005). Many foods have excessive fat and sugar, and too much red meat is consumed, partially as a consequence of subsidies given to some agricultural products (Fields, 2004; Birt, 2007).
     Growing concerns for health and well-being are influ­encing consumers' food choices. Consumers are increasingly looking for health foods and "natural" products, which are often associated with organic production. They are looking for food that provides benefits other than just basic needs (functional food), Consumer concern for obesity has cre­ated a market for fat-reduced or sugar-reduced products. Consumers are increasingly buying fresh food all year-round from all over the world (EEA, 2005), and are switching to chill-cooked meals made from fresh ingredients. These trends

 

are strongly influenced by the double-income households, the decreasing household size and the aging population.
     Food demand is also influenced by the cultural settings. Shapes, textures, flavors and colors of foods help define dif­ferent cultures. Consumption patterns (e.g., cooking styles, meal organization and eating utensils) are a powerful me­dium for the construction of cultural identity, but global­ization is flattening differences. Moreover, food is different from other consumer products in that it passes through the body. Man is transformed by it to a greater extent than by any other product, and it affects his well-being more di­rectly. Overall food contributes to both sensory and social pleasure and also has considerable effect on Man's sense of individual and collective identity (Fischler, 1990; Raoult-Wack and Bricas, 2001).
     The populations of both North America and Europe exhibit alarming increases in diet-related illnesses (e.g., obe­sity, diabetes and arteriosclerosis). For example, the UK has included studies on "tackling obesities: future choices" in its foresight program. A number of recent crises (e.g., mad cow disease, listeria and foot and mouth disease) have exac­erbated consumer concerns about food safety.
     Distribution affects food demand. In the agroindustrial age (Malassis, 1997), the food sector consists of Small or Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) and large groups. Mass distribution (hypermarket-type food outlets) plays a grow­ing role and influences both food production and food consumption. Supermarkets are playing a major role in determining food consumption patterns and have shaped North  American  and  EU tastes.   In  Central  and  East­ern Europe, massive inflows of foreign direct investment and domestic investments are changing the consumption patterns.
     The following trends have recently been observed with respect to food distribution (Anania, 2006; Fulponi, 2006; Henson and Reardon, 2006):
•     An increasing share of food sold to consumers in large stores everywhere in the world, i.e., in cities in the in­dustrial countries and in rural areas in the developing countries (Dries, Reardon, Swimmen, 2004);
•     A rapid increase in the (already extremely high) rate of concentration of the food retail sector;
•     The setting, by the retail sector, of more private food safety and quality standards implying more stringent minimum standard requirements than those defined by existing public regulations (such as EurepGap, enforced today for fresh products);
•     The "decentralization," by the retail sector to its sup­pliers of food products, of an increasing number of functions (such as packaging, pricing and logistic tasks needed to guarantee just-in-time deliveries);
•     The imposition of increasingly more restrictive require­ments as a necessary condition for suppliers to be con­sidered as potential sources, such as the capacity to deliver a "basket" of goods (rather than a single one) or to provide large volumes and do so over extended peri­ods of time throughout the year, all aimed at reducing the number of suppliers and, hence, transaction costs;
•     An increase in the imbalance in the distribution of mar­ket power along the food chain, with the highly con-