Previous Return to table of contents   |   Search Reports Next
« Back to weltagrarbericht.de

132 | Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) Report

Table 3-4. Brief description of the states of component variables in each scenario.

Variable

Global
Orchestration

 Order from
Strength		 Life as it is Adapting Mosaic
TechnoGarden

Barriers to
international
trade

Trade barriers
are removed,
but sanitary and
phyto-sanitary
barriers are
retained

Trade barriers
and subsidies
proliferate,
particularly
those intended
to prevent
bioterrorism

 Trade barriers
and subsidies
proliferate,
particularly
those intended
to prevent
bioterrorism		 Trade barriers are
set, together with
environmentally
friendly tariffs and
subsidies		 There are trade
barriers at the outset,
but by 2030 only
sanitary and phyto/
sanitary barriers are
retained

Epidemics/food
contamination

At the beginning
of the period there
is an increase
in disease and
pest outbreaks,
whose frequency
and intensity
increase steadily
through 2030,
when their control
becomes regional.
High risk of food
contamination

The frequency
and intensity of
diseases and
pest outbreaks
increase. Low
risk of food
contamination
because of strict
bromatological
control of food to
avoid bioterrorism
attacks

 The frequency
and intensity of
diseases and
pest outbreaks
increase. High
risk of food
contamination		 The frequency and
intensity of diseases
and pest outbreaks
increase at the
beginning of the
scenario, but they
decrease towards
the end of it (2030)
Decreasing risk of
food contamination		 The frequency and
intensity of diseases
and pest outbreaks
increase at the
beginning of the
scenario, but they
decrease towards
the end of it (2030) At
this time previously
unknown pests and
diseases come into
the fore. Decreasing
risk of food
contamination
Competitiveness
of agricultural
business
 High. LAC
countries are
embedded in
markets for basic
and differentiated
products		 Low, due to slower
development.
LAC countries
only compete in
markets for basic
products		 High. There is
an increased
competition
for embedding
into markets for
differentiated
products		 Low. The
competitiveness
of LAC countries
slacks off. Local
markets become
more relevant than
international ones		 High competitiveness
increases because
production costs
are decreased and
differentiated products
are preferentially
manufactured
Demands from
final consumers
 Consumer
demands become
more diversified.
There is a stronger
request for
information on the
origin and quality
of products		 Rich countries
demand diversified
products; poor
countries demand
cheap products		 Consumer
demands become
more diversified.
There is a definite
demand for
cheaper products		 Consumers
preferentially
demand local
products
manufactured with
due care for their
environmental
impacts along the
production chain
and waste disposal		 In general, consumer
demands become
increasingly more
diversified.
Climate change
 Mean temperature
and the frequency
of extreme events
increase. Society
is not fully aware
of climate change
impacts. By
2030 countries
fully cooperate
to implement
global mitigation
and adaptation
programs.		 Mean temperature
and the frequency
of extreme
events increase.
Society is not fully
aware of climate
change impacts.
Countries do not
show mitigation
and adaptation
capabilities.		 Mean temperature
and the frequency
of extreme
events increase.
Society is not fully
aware of climate
change impacts.
Countries show
variable mitigation
and adaptation
capabilities		 Mean temperature
and the frequency
of extreme events
increase. Society
becomes fully
aware of climate
change impacts.
Countries increase
their mitigation
and adaptation
capabilities		 Mean temperature
and the frequency
of extreme events
decrease. Society is
fully aware of climate
change impacts.
Countries have well
developed mitigation
and adaptation
capabilities
Previous Return to table of contents   |   Search Reports Next
« Back to weltagrarbericht.de