ing, based on a configuration of negative attributes to achieve material and symbolic returns . . . ; a negative predisposition to overcome adverse conditions.” (Filgueira and Peri, 2004). All of the countries are presented with greater or less vulnerability, depending on the indicator/variable considered.

The scenarios built on the basis of the variables indicated are presented below. A summarized version of the scenarios, referring to all the variables used in their construction, is presented in Table 3-4.

3.4.1 Global Orchestration

3.4.1.1 2007-2015

3.4.1.1.1 Context of the AKST systems and agricultural production
The world and LAC are shifting toward the absence of barriers—except for health barriers—to international trade in agricultural products. This increases competition among countries, which fight for market shares on the basis of prices of differentiated products. The LAC countries already established in commodities markets (including Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico) endeavor with some success to gain a place on the most dynamic markets— United States, China, and India—and on the market for differentiated products.

Throughout the world, the diversity of consumer demand for differentiated foods increases, on the basis of flavor, appearance, nutritional value, nutraceutical properties, bromatological quality, or another such factor. In many countries, consumers demand quality certification for processed foods, referring to such matters as the absence of agrotoxins, child labor, genetically modified organizations, and animal suffering. There is also a rising demand for traceable food products. In LAC, the growing education of the people and increased availability of information lead to greater exigency on the part of consumers, although consumers are more concerned over damage to their health than over aspects related to environmental protection.

During this period of time, in most of the region the frequency or severity of epidemics is not on the rise, due to the incentive to implement good management practices in production systems, the development of appropriate research for prevention and management of epidemics and the search for safe foods, and the development of capacity and regional cooperation to prevent new epidemics.

In some parts of the region, there are major changes in land use patterns. For instance, large tracts of land are

used for single crops for production of biofuels, which may encourage the manifestation of new epidemics. Similarly, in areas already highly affected by early manifestations of climate change, such as floods, droughts, heat waves, and the like, and in zones where no adaptation policies have been planned, conditions are ripe for the proliferation of epidemics or emergence of new pests.

The temperature is rising at the rate of 0.22C-0.24C per decade, and so the frequency of extreme phenomena increases. Their effects are relevant and range widely for the agriculture and production systems in the region, due primarily to the equally widely ranging capacity of adaptation and mitigation. Decision-makers and societies in general, especially in LAC, do not show much concern over these climate changes.

Some countries establish social development, innovation, environmental, and biosecurity and biosafety policies that are coherent and consistent with the major economic development objectives. Consequently, those countries increasingly improve their capacity to manage these policies. Other countries in the region still have relatively ill-defined and short-sighted policies, in addition to a weak management structure. However, as a rule, the governance situation improves considerably up to the end of the period.

Education is considered an essential factor for improving the trade competitiveness of countries. The growing generation of wealth allows governments to make large investments in formal education, from basic to graduate education. The countries with a smaller economic capacity still try to provide at least good primary and secondary education for their citizens.

Education of the stakeholders in production systems is also provided by private educational institutions, along with public schools. The former gradually improve the quality of their results. Some major agricultural enterprises also cooperate in educating stakeholders in production systems, even on a graduate level, in various countries.

The most developed countries of the region make major investments to develop new technologies, such as nanotechnology, and also biotechnology and information technology. Few LAC countries have the capacity to achieve major advances in knowledge of agricultural systems and agriculture, not to mention new technologies.

Both in other regions and in the LAC in general, the value of traditional knowledge is not recognized, yet some large private enterprises seek this knowledge to create new products, such as pharmaceutics or plant-based insecticides, to be used intensively by agricultural production systems.