| informal    methods based on previous allocations; discussions and consensus among    research managers taking into account national agricultural goals and    strategies; to formal quantitative methods such as scoring models, congruency    analysis, domestic resource cost ratio, mathematical programming, and    simulation techniques. The more sophisticated approaches such as programming    and simulation rely on mathematical optimization of a multiple goal objective    function to select the optimum portfolio of AKST investment. These are data    and skill intensive and thus often quite costly to undertake. Many attempts    have been made in the past to use a formal priority setting exercise to    ensure that research resources are allocated in ways that are consistent with    national and regional objectives and needs. Studies which have been    undertaken to assess ex-ante AKST investment priorities have included those    employing criteria which include equity and distributive concerns (Fishel,    1971; Pin-strup-Andersen et al., 1976; Binswanger and Ryan, 1977; Oram and    Bindlish, 1983; Pinero, 1984; Von Oppen and Ryan, 1985; ASARECA, 2005) those    focusing more on efficiency criteria such as congruency (Scobie, 1984);    those employing the notion of comparative advantage using domestic resource    cost analysis (Longmire and Winkelmann, 1985); those using economic surplus    to examine research priorities (Schuh and Tollini, 1979; Norton and Davis,    1981; Rut-tan, 1982; Davis et al., 1987, Omamo et al., 2006); and those using    an optimization routine (Pinstrup-Andersen and Franklin, 1977; Mutangadura,    1997). One of the most comprehensive studies of research resource allocation    lists methods for allocating research resources (Alston et al., 1995). These    combine information from scientists, technicians and other experts on the    expected output of science, their probability of success and possible    timelines with information from economists and other social scientists on    what the potential economic and social payoff would be if the research    investment is successful. The formal methods have been extended to include    environmental consequences of AKST investments (Crosson and Anderson, 1993).    The overall aim is to foster consistency of research priorities with goals    and objectives and to improve the efficiency of the AKST investments in    meeting the needs of the producers, consumers and society at large.In demand-oriented approaches,    priorities are set based on the perspective of major stakeholders from    outside the research system—especially the users. These might employ    consultative and participatory methods using various forms of ranking    techniques or users themselves might be empowered to make decisions on    research priorities. However, it is worth keeping in mind that demand-led and    supply-led approaches are not mutually exclusive. Better results can be    obtained by combining formal supply-led priority setting with participatory    approaches leading to better ownership of resulting priorities and greater    chances that the priorities will be translated into actual resource    allocation. Even the imperfect participation and empowerment of beneficiaries    is likely to produce better results than conventional supply-led approaches    on both efficiency and equity grounds, as they can improve the probability of    broad-based adoption of technologies and knowledge generated, thereby    enhancing innovation capacity. The challenge is to develop a judicious blend    of bottom-up (demand-led) and top-down (supply-
 |   | led)    approaches to priority setting incorporating the multiple goals of AKST    investments.Formal models exist for the ex-ante    evaluation of research projects, which are being used increasingly in more    industrialized countries to allocate research funds but this is less common    in developing countries (Pardey et al., 2006a). Few formal ex-ante models    incorporate the goals of reducing poverty and hunger and the environmental    consequences as explicit criteria for allocating research resources. Some    progress has been made recently to incorporate these aspects in the    analytical process. The two ex-ante studies reported in Eastern and Southern Africa (ASARECA, 2005; Omamo et al., 2006)    consider the ex-ante benefits of all major commodities and the economic and    poverty reduction potential of research investments. In addition, there are    specific studies on site-specific maize research in Kenya (Mills et al., 1996) and the research    priority setting under multiple objectives for Zimbabwe (Mutungadura, 1997;    Mutungadura and Norton, 1999). The extent to which such results are actually    used for setting the R&D agenda remains unclear. These approaches (based    on expected costs and benefits) are very useful in allocating resources among    applied and adaptive research programs and projects. However, they are of    very little use to allocate resources between basic, strategic, applied and    disciplinary research.
 It is not just methods per se that are    problematic; it is also the ability of would-be analysts gaining the    requisite skills to use what methods are available. In the context of NARS,    the task of developing the needed capacity to address aspects such as    environmental and economic assessment of agricultural technology consequences    on NRM (Crosson and Anderson, 1993) is still not yet adequately developed,    especially in an era of profound underfunding of research, at local, national    and regional levels. An important issue in developing and implementing AKST    investment priorities is to explicitly incorporate the requirements of those    who are expected to benefit from such investments.
 Our approach in this study, which    presents the empirical evidence available on the economic, health and    environmental impacts of research but does not try to use a formal priority    setting process to weight the importance of different criteria, reflects the    discussion of well-intentioned, but often misguided attempts to deal with    such multi-criteria formulations of research priorities (Alston et al.,    1995). The review of methods based on scoring models suggests that there are    definitely methodological challenges in such work yet to be satisfactorily    dealt with. This fact shows the need of more resources to develop easier and    more effective evaluation methods that can include environmental and    societal (poverty, nutrition and health) impacts, both positive and negative.
 8.4.2    Investment optionsThe ideal    social planner would be able to rank research investments by their expected    contribution to economically sustainable development, decreased hunger and    poverty, improved nutrition and health, and environmental sustain-ability;    and then would solicit weights from society based on the relative value society    places on these expected contributions. Each country will have different    weights based on the governance of the system and the countries' available    re-
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