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356 | IAASTD Global Report
Food prices will most likely rise as a result of these opportunities and constraints. In addition, regional and national income growth, urbanization and growing global interconnectedness are expected to increase diet diversification and homogenization. Trade liberalization and greater integration of global food markets can support more reliable food supplies and lowered food prices in real terms. But as the reference run shows this is unlikely to be achieved in the coming decades. With declining availability of water and land that can be profitably brought under cultivation, expansion in area will contribute very little to future production growth. The projected slow growth in crop area places the burden to meet future cereal demand on crop yield growth. The key to improving yields under increasingly constrained conditions lies in technology to improve agricultural productivity in order to regenerate productivity growth. Biotechnology could play |
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an important role here. To adapt to and mitigate the various effects from climate change requires the development of new cultivars. Likewise, CO2 emissions can be reduced through new crop management practices supported by appropriate technologies. To achieve such breakthroughs, existing global and regional research-for-development networks for agricultural production technologies and knowledge need to work closely together so that technology and knowledge can flow to allow farmers to face the risks associated with future harvests. Information and communication technologies and traditional and local knowledge could play key roles in the regeneration of future productivity growth. As the alternative policy experiments in this chapter have shown, higher, judiciously placed investments in technology, development can significantly improve outcomes for food availability and food security. |
APPENDIX
A.5.1 The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) A.5.1.1Introduction A.5.1.2 Model structure and data |
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rigation water as a residual. Environmental flows are included as constraints. |
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