Looking Into the Future for Agriculture and AKST | 347

Table 5-24. Change in average crop yields under integrated nutrient management variant.

Region

Crop

Irrigated

Rain-fed

USA

Maize

-14

-14

European Union (15)

Maize

-14

-14

Other Developed

Maize

0

-14

Eastern Europe

Maize

0

0

USA

Wheat

-14

-14

European Union (15)

Wheat

-14

-14

Other Developed

Wheat

-14

-14

Eastern Europe

Wheat

0

0

USA

Soybean

-14

-14

European Union (15)

Soybean

-14

-14

Other Developed

Soybean

-14

-14

Eastern Europe

Soybean

-10

-10

USA

Other grains

-14

-14

European Union (15)

Other grains

-14

-14

Other Developed

Other grains

-14

-14

Eastern Europe

Other grains

0

0

USA

Potato

-20

-20

European Union (15)

Potato

-20

-20

Other Developed

Potato

-20

-20

Eastern Europe

Potato

-12.5

-12.5

Source: IFPRI IMPACT model simulations.

Table 5-25. Change in average livestock carcass weight under integrated nutrient management variant.

Region

Meat

Livestock

USA

Beef

-12.5

European Union (15)

Beef

-7.5

Other Developed

Beef

-12.5

Eastern Europe

Beef

-10

USA

Sheep & goat

-5

European Union (15)

Sheep & goat

-7.5

Other Developed

Sheep & goat

-5

Eastern Europe

Sheep & goat

-10

USA

Dairy

-10

European Union (15)

Dairy

-7.5

Other Developed

Dairy

-5

Eastern Europe

Dairy

0


Source: IFPRI IMPACT model simulations.

 

globally important staple crops, food security. The emer­gence of new plant diseases has largely resulted from the accidental introduction of pathogens in infected seed and in contaminated machinery and globally traded agricultural products. Furthermore, increased intensification of agricul­tural systems both facilitates the establishment and spread of these new pathogens, and imposes selection pressure for greater pathogen virulence (Anderson et al., 2004). Climate also plays an important role in disease emergence: winds disperse fungal and bacterial spores, nematodes and insect vectors of plant viruses; crop-canopy microclimatic condi­tions influence pathogen colonization of leaf surfaces; and seasonal climatic extremes mediate the extent of yield loss from plant diseases. The negative impact that increased climate variability and change will exert on host-pathogen dynamics could accelerate the process of pathogen mi­gration into new agroecosystems, and provide conditions that elevate disease organisms from minor to major status (Coakley et al., 1999). A second trend of importance is that noncommunicable diseases, such as heart disease, diabetes, stroke and cancer, account for nearly half of the global burden of disease (at all ages) and the burden is growing fastest in low- and middle-income countries (Mascie-Taylor and Karim, 2003). Chronic diseases are expected to rapidly increase as a result of more sedentary, urbanized lifestyles. In addition, the overall large increase in calorie availability in developing countries is ex-