Table 5-22. Challenges for AKST.
Region |
Challenges for AKST |
sub-Saharan Africa |
• Development of affordable irrigation infrastructure, suitable for smallholders, including supporting roads, and markets
• Development of suitable water harvesting techniques and small supplemental irrigation methods to upgrade rain-fed areas
• Creating the right institutional and economic environment for widespread adoption of these methods |
MENA |
• Development of environmentally sound ways to reuse return flows, often of low quality
• Design of appropriate policies addressing sectoral competition and water pollution
• Reduce adverse impacts of groundwater overexploitation |
C. Asia, E. Europe |
• Design of politically feasible institutional reforms in irrigated areas
• Measures to restore ecosystems services
• Adapting yesterday's large-scale irrigation systems to tomorrow's needs |
South Asia |
• Design of politically feasible institutional reforms in irrigated areas
• Water conserving and yield boosting technologies to increase the output per unit of water in irrigated areas
• Water harvesting and supplemental irrigation; resource-conserving practices to mitigate land and water degradation and the creation of enabling environment for the adoption of available techniques |
East Asia |
• Techniques to enhance the water productivity, particularly in rice areas (such as alternative wet-dry)
• Reduce adverse impacts of groundwater overexploitation |
Latin America |
• Land expansion and sustainable land use
• Support and regulation of private irrigation |
OECD |
• Policies addressing increased sectoral competition
• Restoring ecosystem services |
Source: Based on CA, 2007, pp 131-136.
creasing. Figure 5-40 shows the resulting differences from the reference case for the two types of foods: a 13% decrease in meat prices and a 10% increase in the price of nonmeat foods. As the rise of integrated nutrient management in agriculture results in a decline in average yields, commodity prices increase between 11-13% for major meat commodities and 3-21 % for major crops like maize and soybean (Figures 5-47 and 5-48).
Per capita food consumption also shifts in these alternatives to the reference baseline. With the rise in prices in the case of increasing use of integrated nutrient management in agriculture, per capita consumption of all foods leads to decreases of up to 17%, but varies across regions, according to dietary patterns. On the other hand, the slowdown in meat demand growth shifts food preferences away from meat and toward nonmeat foods, which is commensurate with the price shifts discussed earlier, and the consumption shifts shown in Table 5-26, with a few exceptions. In sub-Saharan Africa the countervailing force of the price shifts actually leads to increased consumption of meat in addition to nonmeat foods. The price shifts in North America/Europe actually leads a slight inversion of the expected outcome, but this is due to the changes being implemented on the already low elasticities in this region not having as much effect as in other regions.
The calculation of the malnutrition indicators in the IMPACT framework (malnourished children by weight under five years old) has per capita kilocalorie consump- |
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tion as an important factor and this follows the food consumption changes noted above. Nonmeat foods are denser in calories on a per kilogram basis, so a decrease in meat demand would lead to a decline in malnourishment. Figure 5-43 shows the impact on this malnutrition indicator aggregated to the developing world. Ultimately, a reduction in the growth of meat consumption with relatively more consumption of nonmeat foods sees a 0.5% decline in malnourished children while a certified organic world would see a 3% increase.
The potential evolution of consumer preferences for more use of integrated nutrient management practices in agriculture and nonmeat foods is uncertain. While the reference case presented previously already includes a certain amount of these shifting preferences, the purpose of this analysis is to highlight the potential impacts if these trends strengthen in the future. If meat demand were to decrease at a global level, the primary challenge will be to augment productivity investments on the crops that will maintain a balanced diet for consumers, particularly for crops that will constitute balanced proteins to replace meats. Increasing demands and prices for nonmeat foods will be the main challenge for agricultural production. Meanwhile, an increase in the use of integrated nutrient management practices in agriculture would raise a different set of challenges. In particular, maintaining productivity levels and controlling costs will be the most important issues to address. Alternative organic inputs for large-scale production that will maintain |