creasing. Figure 5-40 shows the resulting differences from the reference case for the two types of foods: a 13% decrease in meat prices and a 10% increase in the price of nonmeat foods. As the rise of integrated nutrient management in ag­riculture results in a decline in average yields, commodity prices increase between 11-13% for major meat commodi­ties and 3-21 % for major crops like maize and soybean (Fig­ures 5-47 and 5-48).
     Per capita food consumption also shifts in these alterna­tives to the reference baseline. With the rise in prices in the case of increasing use of integrated nutrient management in agriculture, per capita consumption of all foods leads to decreases of up to 17%, but varies across regions, accord­ing to dietary patterns. On the other hand, the slowdown in meat demand growth shifts food preferences away from meat and toward nonmeat foods, which is commensurate with the price shifts discussed earlier, and the consumption shifts shown in Table 5-26, with a few exceptions. In sub-Saharan Africa the countervailing force of the price shifts actually leads to increased consumption of meat in addition to nonmeat foods. The price shifts in North America/Europe actually leads a slight inversion of the expected outcome, but this is due to the changes being implemented on the already low elasticities in this region not having as much effect as in other regions.
     The calculation of the malnutrition indicators in the IMPACT  framework   (malnourished  children  by weight under five years old) has per capita kilocalorie consump-

tion as an important factor and this follows the food con­sumption changes noted above. Nonmeat foods are denser in calories on a per kilogram basis, so a decrease in meat demand would lead to a decline in malnourishment. Figure 5-43 shows the impact on this malnutrition indicator aggre­gated to the developing world. Ultimately, a reduction in the growth of meat consumption with relatively more consump­tion of nonmeat foods sees a 0.5% decline in malnourished children while a certified organic world would see a 3% increase.
     The potential evolution of consumer preferences for more use of integrated nutrient management practices in agriculture and nonmeat foods is uncertain. While the ref­erence case presented previously already includes a certain amount of these shifting preferences, the purpose of this analysis is to highlight the potential impacts if these trends strengthen in the future. If meat demand were to decrease at a global level, the primary challenge will be to augment productivity investments on the crops that will maintain a balanced diet for consumers, particularly for crops that will constitute balanced proteins to replace meats. Increasing de­mands and prices for nonmeat foods will be the main chal­lenge for agricultural production. Meanwhile, an increase in the use of integrated nutrient management practices in agriculture would raise a different set of challenges. In par­ticular, maintaining productivity levels and controlling costs will be the most important issues to address. Alternative or­ganic inputs for large-scale production that will maintain