•  Assessments expect agricultural trade to increase, as indicated earlier (see 4.3.1). These increases are most pronounced in the globalization scenarios (assuming a reduction of trade barriers)—but also occur in sce­narios that assume a more regional focus as a result of increasing demand for agricultural products. Obvious­ly, this trend may have very important implications for both commercial and small-scale farmers in developing countries. Another implication may be the increasing importance of multinational companies.
•   As discussed earlier, urbanization is likely to continue in all scenarios. As a consequence, food will increasingly be available to consumers via retailers and supermar­kets, a trend that represents a continuation of a ma­jor trend already taking place in developing countries (Reardon et al., 2003. This trend will slowly influence

the importance of different actors in the food systems (see 4.4.1), although consequences are hard to assess. The role of farmers may, for instance, be very differ­ent in the MA's Global Orchestration scenario (with a strong market focus) than under the MA's Adaptive Mosaic scenario (in which farmers may successfully organize themselves). Important consequences of the trend towards retailers and supermarkets (and underly­ing urbanization) also include changes in diets (4.4.1), an increasing focus on production standards, demand­ing quality and safety attributes, and an increasing com­mercialization of upstream production processes.
•   There are direct relationships between the above dis­cussed demographic trends and agricultural production processes as well. For instance, location in relation to urban centers affects access to markets for purchased inputs and the costs of such inputs often leading to con­fined agricultural in periurban zones (thus reinforcing