•     Most models have not had sufficient resolution to ana­lyze the impacts of reforms on small-scale and subsist­ence farmers, and other poor households (Gulati and Narayanan, 2002; Tokarick, 2002; Beierle and Diaz-Bonilla, 2003; Hertel and Winters, 2005).

4.3.2.4 Agricultural investments
The investment requirements to achieve projected scenarios are seldom computed. Based on an assessment of five key drivers for agricultural development (agricultural research, irrigation, rural roads, education, and clean water) invest­ment requirements to generate modest levels of agricultural production growth have been estimated at US$579 billion during 1997-2020 (Rosegrant et al., 2001) (Table 4-7). Ac­cording to this study, levels of investment required will vary from region to region, e.g., South Asia and Latin America would require the highest levels. Sub-Saharan Africa's in­vestment requirements would total US$107 billion during 1997-2020 and would represent 19% of 1997 government spending on an annual basis. At the sector level, irrigation would account for 30% of the total investments, public ag­ricultural research and rural roads for another 21% each, with educations' share the lowest at 13 percent.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is an important source of capital flows for development. FDI for agriculture is gen­erally lower than that of other sectors. In countries such as Vietnam, FDI in agriculture and rural areas is declining similar to other regions; IBRD/IDA commitments to the ag­ricultural sector are also declining (Binh, 2004).

4.3.2.5 Implications forAKST
Projected income growth is likely to lead to shifts in food demand patterns, e.g., from cereals to meat consumption (see 4.4.1). It can be hypothesized that with this shift, sus­tainable technologies  for intensive livestock production, and policy safeguards for meat safety ( i.e., meat inspection services), and environmental regulation will be needed.

     Higher incomes will also mean more expensive farm la­bor; this can be addressed through increased mechanization, and clustering of small farms, whenever applicable, for more efficient management (assuming sufficient access to capital and/or demand for labour in other economic sectors). Due to higher opportunity costs of time, supermarkets will be in high demand. In addition, food quality assurance will need to be met through certification, labeling, and appropriate packaging. These conditions are currently deficient in most developing countries.