e.g., mid-season drainage combined with shallow flooding. Using ammonium sulfate fertilizer, which impedes CH4 production, and considering new insights in rice CH4 production in breeding programs may further decrease CH4 emissions.

Although the strategy of soil carbon sequestration to mitigate climate change has been questioned, the likelihood that CO2 will revert to the atmosphere because carbon sequestering practices might be abandoned seems rather small. Many of the practices that avoid greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon sequestration can also improve agricultural efficiency and the economics of production. It is unlikely that farmers would abandon such win-win approaches unless competing demands for natural resources, mainly land, or some larger force compelled them to do so. The discussion however shows that practices to mitigate climate change have to be compatible with sustainable development; that is, they should also meet objectives unrelated to climate such as cost efficiency. AKST might therefore require capacity development in this regard and have to promote reforms of policies that currently encourage inefficient, unsustainable or risky farming, grazing and forestry practices.

5.2.1.8 Market orientation, diversification and risk management

Agrofood marketing, patterns and types of food consumption and food diversity are changing steadily as a result of development and globalization. Food markets are growing five times faster in the emerging market regions of Asia, Latin America, and central and eastern Europe than in the United States and western Europe (Reardon and Flores, 2006). National-level sales are growing at a country average of 7% in upper-middle-income countries like the Republic of Korea, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, South Africa, and 28% a year in lower- middle-income countries such as China, Bulgaria, Russia, Colombia, most of North Africa and West Asia, compared with about 2% a year in upper-income countries (Regmi and Gehlhar, 2005, citing data from www.euromonitor. com). With the expanding agrofood markets, food import bills in many CWANA countries are increasing, and agricultural imports constitute approximately one-fourth of CWANA’s total merchandise imports (see Chapter 1 for geo-economics details).

Another added dimension to market reorientation is the spread of supermarkets and hypermarkets. In western Europe and the United States, the share of supermarkets went from none in 1920 to about 80% today—65% in Japan. The top four chains in the U.K. now have 50% of the market, chains in Germany 55%, France and Spain 60% (only 35% in the United States) (Cook, 2005). Besides this change in the structure of the food industry globally, there has been a rapid and recent transformation in how food industry firms source farm and processed products from producers. These changes are extremely important for local producers as well as for exporters. Because food industry firms are expanding the coverage of their procurement catchment areas, they are shifting their sourcing from traditional wholesale markets to the “new generation specialized wholesaler”. Private standards of quality and safety are rapidly emerging (Reardon and Farina, 2001). This scenario provides an opportunity

for AKST to be used to ensure that through enhanced production domestic agrofood products are substituted for imports. AKST can also help add postharvest value in storing, packaging, grading and labeling, by helping suppliers comply with standards and meet sanitary and phytosanitary requirements. It can build technology capital toward supplier upgrading, such as enabling suppliers to meet the tough new private standards like EurepGAP.

The volume of food trade increased 2.1 times from 1980 to 2003 (3.4% annually, faster than the annual rate of growth of GDP/capita in the world of 2.65%). Increases in trade were extremely uneven over product categories, with “nonstaples” the clear winners and grains the clear losers. Trade in fruits and vegetables grew by 330%; trade in meat, fish and seafood grew 300-400% from 1980 to 2003 (Reardon and Flores, 2006). Analysis of the production figures for cereals, fruits and vegetables in the CWANA region (see 2.1.2.1 for complete statistics on production) make it evident that in CWANA nonstaple crops are of secondary importance to cereals, which are and have long been one of the most important commodities in agricultural production. Due to the traditional and to a large extent nondiversified production trends in the region, CWANA has little exportable surplus of nonstaple crops and hence is not yet able to gain any significant benefit from new marketing opportunities that arise from trade of nontraditional crops.

In food economics, Bennett’s Law states that as incomes rise, consumers switch into nonstaples and out of staples (Bennett, 1941). A strong middle class with higher spending power in CWANA is increasingly shifting from traditional to nonstaple food items, resulting in an increase in the food import bill. It is in this context that AKST can be used for agrofood diversification; market opportunities may be captured by producing products that are in high demand. Using AKST to produce nonstaple crops and off-season crops has great potential in CWANA, and it would not only contribute to increased income-earning opportunities for the growers (which in turn would reduce poverty and improve livelihoods) but also to a reduced import bill and rational use of foreign exchange at a macro level. Markets capitalizing on biodiversity as a source of food, herbal remedies and income are gradually emerging (Leaman et al., 1999). CWANA with its huge biodiversity hosts a large number of underutilized crops that might gain momentum in such markets (Giuliani, 2007). In many cases, the potential exists for more widespread use of these species. They include crops that could meet the needs of farmers wanting to increase yield from their land and consumers seeking a more natural and varied diet. They can offer opportunities for farmers to tap different markets and thus represent important new sources of income for rural people. Despite their local and potential importance, these species have been largely neglected by researchers. Information on their agronomic characteristics or nutritional value is often lacking, there is little genetic diversity available in gene banks for breeders to use and the seed industry largely ignores them. Therefore, improving the availability of information on underutilized crops demands more attention. Development of improved processing technologies and market analyses are required to capitalize on such “lost crops”. New technologies such as molecular genetics and GIS will certainly play their part