132 | Central and West Asia and North Africa (CWANA) Report

Due to changing climatic conditions producers will have to cope with new and exacerbated pest, disease and weed problems. Warmer and more humid winters will lead to insect and pathogen overwintering ranges and their numbers expanding. Increased temperatures are also likely to facilitate expansion of highly damaging weeds such as striga. Integrated pest management will certainly gain importance, and the capacity of research, extension and farmers will have to be strengthened to be able to monitor thresholds, detect signs early, etc. Modeling efforts may need to be strengthened to understand pest-host dynamics under environmental change and to improve predicting how and where epidemics and other increased threats will occur.

Various crop management practices will facilitate adaptation to changed climatic conditions. Important aspects to consider include changes in soil preparation such as conservation tillage to improve nutrient and moisture retention and to prevent soil erosion; adaptation of planting and harvest dates or seeding densities; promotion of vigorous crop establishment through adequate soil fertility, addition of fertilizer to seed, seed priming, transplanting, supplemental irrigation; and other adapted management practices such as incremental fertilization.

Livestock production will probably be mainly affected by changes in feed availability because of rangeland and pasture productivity, and grain prices. Whereas intensively managed livestock systems have more potential for adaptation than crop systems, pastoral systems might need more attention since the rate of technology adoption is generally slower because changes in technology are viewed as risky (IPCC, 2007b).

Adaptation options in coastal areas and marine fisheries may have to include preventing development in coastal areas vulnerable to erosion, inundation and storm-surge flooding. "Hard" (dikes, levees, seawalls) or "soft" (beach nourishment, dune and wetland restoration, forestation) structures may be used to protect coasts. Storm warning systems and evacuation plans will have to be implemented, wetlands protected and restored, and estuaries and flooding plains maintained to preserve essential habitat for fisheries. Fishery management institutions will have to be modified and strengthened and policies to promote conservation of fisheries revised. Research and monitoring to better support integrated management of fisheries will be required.

However, all technological options to adapt to climatic changes will require an enabling environment that includes availability of financial resources, technology transfer, and cultural, educational, managerial, institutional, legal and regulatory practices. Affordability of such measures is, particularly for poor farmers, a prerequisite for their implementation. Access to functional savings and credit systems as well as to input and output markets is important. But also targeted support through adequate pricing policies or payments for ecosystem services will have to be considered to enhance the adaptive capacity of producers, especially in smallholder rainfed production systems and particularly in semiarid areas. Land and water access and use rights will have to be adapted to encourage both men and women farmers to invest in adapted technologies. Access to information, know-how and technology will have to be improved through better links between research, extension and

 

farmers. Proactive risk management strategies will have to replace the currently prevailing reactive disaster management. Besides improved weather forecasting and access to reliable climate and weather information, early-warning networks and support agreements, such as the West African Comité permanent Inter-Etats de Lutte contre la Sécheresse dans le Sahel, may have to be developed. Insurance programs for farmers will encourage farmers to invest, improve the social resilience of poor rural populations, and mitigate the risks related to increased climatic variability. Capacity development will certainly be required to successfully face the challenges ahead and may also help in benefiting from the Flexible Mechanisms included in the Kyoto Protocol, such as the Clean Development Mechanism.

Mitigation. Beyond the use of biomass fuels to displace fossil fuels, the management of forests and rangelands and practices in agricultural production can play an important role in reducing current emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O and in enhancing carbon sinks (IPCC, 2007b). Woody perennials are particularly important in conserving and sequestering substantial amounts of carbon. Therefore, sustaining existing forest cover, slowing deforestation, regenerating natural forests and assisting the natural migration of tree species (e.g., through connecting protected areas and transplanting), establishing tree plantations and promoting agroforestry options are key land-use options for mitigating climate change. Such options as well as reducing conversion of grassland to cultivated land and setting aside ecological compensation areas may be all the more possible if agricultural production is intensified on surfaces less prone to degradation; to this end participatory land-use planning may be required.

Agricultural practices such as conservation tillage, rational management of crop residues (mulching, less burning of biomass) and proper fertilization (improved fertilizer-use efficiency, application matched with demand, incremental fertilization, use of legumes in rotations) may reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase soil organic matter and thus carbon sequestration. Planting improved fallows and cover crops, improving rangeland management, avoiding
soil erosion and particularly rehabilitating degraded lands further contribute to producing and maintaining soil organic matter (Duxbury, 2005; Lal, 2005; IPCC, 2007c).

Methane and N2O emissions from rearing livestock may be substantially reduced in two ways. (1) Improving manure management, e.g., reducing anaerobic decomposition, may not only lessen emissions but allow for capitalizing on methane production by recovering CH4 and using it to produce bioenergy. (2) Improving ruminant feeding is another way to reduce greenhouse gas emission from livestock husbandry; processing the feed for better digestibility, supplementing with nutrients and vitamins, or adding probiotics, yeasts and edible oils to animal feed may not only reduce CH4 emissions but also increase productivity and thus result in a reduction of emissions per unit of product such as meat or milk. Recent experience, as in Australia, provides evidence that CH4 production by rumen microorganisms may be controlled (Wright et al., 2004).

Methane emissions from paddy rice production may be significantly reduced through adapted water management,