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rest is shared among 16 other countries worldwide. There is little consensus among the findings from the assessments of economic and environmental impacts of GMOs. An analysis of the global impact of biotech crops from 1996 to 2006 showed substantial net economic benefits at the farm level; reduced pesticide spraying, decreased environmental impact associated with pesticide use and reduced release of greenhouse gas emission (Brookes and Barfoot, 2006). A different study of the economic impact of transgenic crops in developing countries found positive, but highly variable economic returns to adoption (Raney, 2006). In this case, institutional factors such as the national agriculture research capacity, environmental and food safety regulations, IPRs and agriculture input markets determined the level of benefits, as much as the technology itself (Raney, 2006). Adoption of GM cotton in South Africa is symptomatic, not of farmer endorsement of GM technology, but of the profound lack of farmers' choice and a failure to generate sufficient income in agroecosystems without a high level of intensification (Witt et al., 2006). Other studies have concluded that GM technologies have contributed very little to increased food production, nutrition, or the income of farmers in less-developed countries (Herdt, 2006), or even led to deskilling of farmers (Stone, 2007). In Argentina, many large scale farmers have greatly benefited from the use of herbicide resistant soybeans (Trigo and Cap, 2003; Qaim and Traxler, 2004). However significant socioeconomic and environmental problems have arisen from the increased area of soybeans linked to the introduction of GM soybean for small-scale or landless farmers, which enabled them to produce at significantly lower costs, with expansion on marginal lands (Trigo and Cap, 2003; Benbrook, 2005; Joensen et al., 2005; Pengue, 2005). In India, claims regarding benefits or damages are highly controversial with reports presenting opposing data and conclusions (e.g., Qayum and Sakkhari, 2005 vs. Morse et al., 2005).

3.2.3.2.2 Health and nutrition

Rates of hunger have been decreasing but hunger is still common despite the advances of AKST and the Green Revolution.

Goals
N, H, L, S, D
Certainty
A
Range of Impacts
-3 to +4
Scale
G
Specificity
Mostly in developing countries

Although the Green Revolution and other AKST have had significant impacts on increased food supply, the reduction of hunger and malnutrition has been unevenly distributed across the world. Currently, the number of people defined as hungry in 2006 was 854 million people, of whom 820 million lived in developing countries (FAO, 2006e). In parallel, food consumption per person has risen from 2358 to 2803 kcal per day between the mid 1960s and late 1990s. Now, only 10% of the global population lives in countries with food consumption below 2200 kcal, while 61% live in countries consuming over 2700 kcal (FAO, 2005c). However the incidence of hunger has not declined in many countries of sub-Saharan Africa (FAO, 2005c), where population growth (3%) outstrips increases in food production (2%). In 2005, it was estimated that 13% of the world population (850 million people) are energy-undernourished, of whom

 

780 million were in developing countries (FAO, 2005c). Hunger is not explained by a simple relationship between food supply and population, as adverse agricultural conditions, poverty, political instability, alone or in combination, are contributing factors (Sen, 1981).

Rates of malnutrition are decreasing, but undernutrition is still a leading cause of health loss worldwide despite AKST advances.

Goals
N, H, L, S, D
Certainty
A
Range of Impacts
-4 to +2
Scale
G
Specificity
Mostly in developing countries

AKST has been important in reducing malnutrition, especially in mothers and children. Although the world food system provides protein and energy to over 85% people, only two-thirds have access to sufficient dietary micronutrients for good health (Black, 2003). Child stunting malnutrition reduced in developing countries from 47% in 1980 to 33% in 2000, but is still a major public health problem with 182 million stunted preschool children in developing countries (70% in Asia and 26% in Africa) (de Onis, 2000). Factors implicated include low national per capita food availability, lack of essential nutrients due to poor diet diversity, poor child breast feeding patterns, high rates of infectious disease, poor access to safe drinking water, poor maternal education, slow economic growth and political instability (de Onis, 2000). Under nutrition remains the single leading cause of health loss worldwide (Ezzati et al., 2003), and being underweight causes 9.5% of the total disease burden worldwide. In developing countries this is linked with nearly 50% of malaria, respiratory diseases and diarrhea. Selected dietary micronutrient deficiencies (iron, vitamin A and zinc deficiency) were responsible for 6.1% of world disease burden (Ezzati et al., 2003).

A focus on increased production and food security rather than diet quality has contributed to a rise in obesity worldwide and the double burden of under- and overnutrition in developing countries.

Goals
N, H, L, S, D
Certainty
A
Range of Impacts
-2 to+2
Scale
G
Specificity
Worldwide

A focus on energy needs, rather than improved nutrition and access to a balanced and healthy diet, has been one factor in increasing overweight and obesity worldwide (Black, 2003; Hawkes, 2006). Increased food production and per capita availability together with a decline in world prices since the 1960s has created food energy abundance for more than 60% of the world (FAO, 2005c). Dietary and nutritional transitions have occurred worldwide, with actual patterns of diet change and hence health impacts varying (Popkin, 1998; Caballero, 2005). Socioeconomic, demographic and environmental changes have occurred that affect food availability, food choices, activity and life patterns (e.g., urbanization, work practices, transport, markets and trade) (Hawkes, 2006). Diet trends have resulted in widespread decreasing intake of fruits and vegetables and increasing intake of meat, sugar, salt and energy-dense processed foods (Popkin, 1998; WHO/FAO, 2003). Dietary fat now accounts for up to 26-30% of caloric intake, and there has been marked increases in both meat and fish intake (see 3.2.1). These