area of social development and environmental sustainability. Application of traditional knowledge improves towards the end of this scenario

     The Adapting Mosaic presents a world in which immense institutional changes occur, including asymmetries of power among social stakeholders, paradigms for exploration of natural resources, generation of socio-political agreements, and distribution of wealth among social segments. All of these key elements for social and economic life are transformed. It is also a fragmented world, as in the Order from Strength scenario, but this fragmentation is not oriented towards domination of a fragment—or a region or river basin—over others. Each fragment seeks its own ways and places to deal with the environment, to reduce the impact on it. This entire transformation generates major crises and difficulties, affecting even urban food security in this scenario. There is also duplication of efforts, with a weak capacity to learn from imitation in many fragments, and delays in arriving at solutions. But there are also improvements in some indicators, and especially in the environmental impact. According to this scenario, formal AKST systems are initially viewed with distrust, but they clearly make an important contribution to achieving the objectives pursued by social groups, and so this distrust diminishes towards the end of the period. The empowerment of all of the more vulnerable social groups enhances the value of traditional knowledge, which is used in the Adapting Mosaic world.

     The TechnoGarden scenario depicts a world in which countries are highly interconnected and motivated by a strong concern for the environment—with a pro-active approach, to prevent impacts on the environment. It is a world in which the actual concept of agriculture is transformed to include protection for environmental services. Environmental problems are solved and prevented by incorporating a high degree of technology. However, as in the Adapting Mosaic, thereis also an interest in improving the quality of life of all segments of society and AKST institutionalizes this concern in its practices. Thus, new technologies are adapted to the different social groups, but also to different environmental conditions. Traditional knowledge is valued, and is used and systematized to a great extent in this scenario. Consequently, many sustainable development indicators improve, although in this world an optimum solution to the environmental problem is never found.

     What are the implications of these scenarios for AKST and sustainable development policies, that could prevent the negative situations described in them, and what possibility is there for facilitating such action and ensuring interaction that would foster sustainable development?      In the following section there is a brief presentation of the implications for innovation policies and social development policies in support of vulnerable social groups under each scenario. It is important to point out that although each scenario is described in the present tense, these scenarios should not be regarded as predictions, but rather as possible future situations.

     The policy implications were devised on the basis of the different scenarios, but also in consideration of the current situation of vulnerability in each country with respect to the different variables involved in them (this situation was described at the beginning of the scenarios, in Table 3-3). The

 line of reasoning followed is that even though we cannot accurately say that the most vulnerable countries today will have the same degree of vulnerability in future, this comparison makes it possible to indicate which countries have a greater or lesser probability of overcoming risks or taking advantage of future opportunities.

3.5.1 Global orchestration

3.5.1.1 Implications for innovation policies
The absence of barriers could lead to a reduction in product prices, and so productive efficiency would be very important in this scenario. However, competition is also based on quality differentiation. According to this scenario, there is a great diversification in the demands of end consumers, who, like the major corporations that govern this scenario, are generally relatively unconcerned about the environment.
     This is a scenario where there is tremendous competition among countries, based on the constant development of new, differentiated products through the use of technology. On the one hand, this involves risks, even for the countries with the greatest current capacity to generate knowledge, such as Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and Mexico, because the gap between these countries and the developed world widens, especially in terms of investment in new technologies. The demand for product differentiation cannot be met at the level specified in the scenario, with the current capacity of the LAC countries. To maintain this capacity at the required levels, there would have to be a heavy investment in R&D. For those countries that have a very limited capacity to generate know-how today, it is important to make an effort to achieve independence in generating know-how and technology in this scenario.
     There is also a greater risk of epidemics, of the effects of climate change and of negative impacts on environmental sustainability, in comparison with the Life as it is scenario, for the reasons set forth below.
     With regard to epidemics, the countries of Central America and the Caribbean are more vulnerable (in view of their current capacity to prevent known and newly emerging pests). They could damage agriculture and human health, and cause important losses. The research agenda should include development of technologies to prevent and eliminate these
epidemics, or to find ways to adapt to or live with them.
     Policies that guarantee inclusion of environmental problems on the research agenda for the region—especially for the megadiverse countries, such as Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela—should be implemented over time, and mechanisms to inform end consumers and make them aware of the risks to the environment involved in this scenario should be established.
     Requirements pertaining to quality, traceability, and safety of foods entail costs that may be too high for small enterprises to bear. It is important to build policies and strategies to guarantee access to low-cost technologies that enable producers to meet these requirements.

3.5.1.2 Implications for sustainable development policies
Global Orchestration describes a world in which knowledge and its constant accumulation is the key factor of development. This involves a risk for more vulnerable segments of