is interested in them. The concept of the future is related to several basic dimensions: (1) Time, the perception and measurement of which, in some societies, is related to the cycles of nature and natural phenomena that are repeated. This dimension leads to a concept of the future as a natural sequence of the past and present; (2) Advances in knowledge and technology. This dimension brings a perspective of evolution and change for contemporary societies, which is different from the previous idea of the future as a continuation of the past. It implies a turbulent atmosphere, in constant transformation, in which studies of the future become more difficult and at the same time more necessary.

Moreover, it is important to consider present influences, or the relationships among the phenomena that influence the present, as well as the possible emergence of new influences. Thus, to be able to understand the future, the current influences on the present must be understood, but account must also be taken of possible emerging events. This last consideration implies a degree of uncertainty, for the future or futures, to the extent that it expands the horizon of time in which the future is analyzed.

The concepts of present influences and future uncertainty are combined in the concept of the future adopted in this chapter. According to this concept, the future is the result of the interaction between historical trends and the occurrence of hypothetical events.

A prospective view is an attempt to understand the future that considers the dynamics of various types of influences, including scientific-technological, social, economic and environmental factors, which act on social systems over time, in order to build plausible alternative futures on the
basis of this analysis. The systemic approach. In systems theory, the whole, or the system, is the product of its interactive parts, which must be understood and known as they relate to the operation of the whole. Among the conceptual frameworks of the systemic approach, the concepts of system, limits, hierarchy, and systemic model are the ones that are most useful for the prospective studies presented in this chapter.

A system is a series of interactive parts or components of interest to the researcher, according to Milsun’s definition in Jones (1970). What are the systems of interest in the case of this chapter?

The very question underlying this entire evaluation provides the clues for identifying these systems. The question refers to systems of agricultural knowledge, science, and technology and also systems in which sustainable development occurs, especially in the rural environment. The question also makes specific reference to the relations among these systems, in referring to the contributions of one to the results of another.

What are the limits of the systems to be analyzed? In this chapter, the limits are defined as follows:

• For knowledge, science, and technology systems (AKST),
  they include the so-called systems of traditional and local
  knowledge, i.e., the “dynamic body of knowledge
  and practices accumulated by traditional communities
  and by agricultural production systems, based on their
  interaction with nature and their agricultural activities.”
  They also include formal systems of science and technology

• or, more specifically, research and development (R&D) designed to generate technology and know-how for agricultural production systems;
• For systems where there is sustainable development, the premise contained in the question underlying this evaluation is that they must be agricultural production systems, because the contribution of R&D to sustainable development implied in the question can only occur on the basis of its action on those systems.

Moreover, these two systems not only interact with each other, but are also subject to the influence of other larger, more embracing systems, the system that could be referred to as the macro-context or, more simply, the context, which involves all of the different types of influences that are not generated in the R&D systems and in agricultural production systems.

The complexity of the systems is simplified in the models that represent them. A general model to represent the question on which this evaluation and chapter are based can be found in Figure 3-1.

3.3 Methodology
The first stage in the scenario building process is to prepare a model that represents the relations among the systems of interest (the R&D systems, the agricultural production systems, and their context), in more detail than what is presented in Figure 3-1. Although consideration should be given to the model presented in Figure 3-1, it is too general to guide construction of the scenarios.

Thus we worked on the basis of a recently constructed model and variables for another study of the future. This study was undertaken in an attempt to understand the changes in the context of R&D systems that would affect the development of these systems over a period of ten years (around 2015) in six countries in Latin America (Castro et al., 2005; Lima et al, 2005; Santamaría et al, 2005).

Consequently, for the variables described by R&D systems and their context, the same variables used in that study were considered for this analysis. For the variables that describe agricultural production systems, a process of collective creation and bibliographic review made it possible to identify the relevant variables for those systems. All the variables considered in this chapter are presented in Table 3-1.

Figure 3-1. The relationships among relevant systems in AKST.
Source: Authors’ elaboration