The implications of these uncertainties for AKST are many and varied. Climate change and consequent variations in crop/animal production and productivity may increase investments in AKST but have a diminishing success rate over time if climate change continues to worsen. Increasing resource constraints and deteriorating law and order situa­tions could impose restrictions on access to, participation in, and utilization of, technology and knowledge for millions of people.
     Several other changes in the relationships among the drivers of change will also shape the nature and intensity of AKST in the region. For instance, increasing production problems in dryland agriculture and fisheries could lead to migration, consequent displacement and strife and may carry an entire generation of location specific knowledge to urban or other centers. Displacement will in turn affect the access to education and S&T training, thus reducing further the availability of technically qualified and trained human resources for AKST.

4.4      Relevance and Implications for Agriculture and AKST

4.4.1      Drivers of change and implications for agriculture
Given the pattern of evolution of the key drivers of change, the future of agriculture and food systems in ESAP reflects the continuing social, economic and environmental impor­tance of agriculture. Agriculture in ESAP will be influenced by the economic and political choices made by individual Governments, developing and developed, and will in turn play a crucial role in shaping some of these macroeconomic

decisions in the region. The latter may include options for domestic social security nets, regional and global trade choices, impacts on and investments to mitigate global cli­mate change processes and may also lead to internal nego­tiations and alignments within the region among countries willing to adopt different paths to address social and envi­ronmental sustainability. The overall sociopolitical power play in the region is an important dimension that underpins this discussion.
     Overall, the trends or projections of the key drivers of change draw upon on a diverse set of policies and institu­tional arrangements prevalent in the ESAP region and they reflect some of the inconsistencies and the diversity that ex­ists in these policies and regional contexts. The major impli­cations of the key drivers of change for agriculture and food systems in ESAP are the following.

1. Given the decreasing share of agriculture in the economy of the region, and its overriding importance in providing employment, food, nutrition and health, social and environ­mental well-being, it is clear that agriculture can provide solutions only if appropriate macroeconomic policies are in place. Despite impressive overall economic growth and a declining share in the overall economy (GDP), agriculture will continue to play a major role in the economy of ESAP countries, mainly because it will continue to be the mainstay for a large proportion of the rural population in almost all the developing ESAP countries and will be a major contrib­utor to environmental degradation as well as a focus of en­vironmental remediation in both developing and developed ESAP countries.
     South Asia will be home to half the Asian population