this land (Gratzl and Fawer-Wasser, 2006). Studies predict an exponential decrease in global per person agricultural land in future (2025) due to urbanization, degradation, and biofuel plantations among other things (Lal, 2006). Per person arable land area will be <0.1 ha by 2025 in some densely populated countries of Asia under a scenario of medium population growth (Engelman and LeRoy, 1995). Competition is heightened when soils are degraded due to poor agricultural practices or natural processes (Swift and Sanchez, 1984; FAO, 1999). The prices of food and fod­der crops would increase even if large-scale cultivation of biofuel feedstocks is promoted irrespective of economic value of food crops and biofuel feedstocks (Kampman et al., 2005). This could have significant socioeconomic effects for ESAP where food security is already an issue (Yuit and Wall, 2006). Furthermore, monocultures and block crop­ping, which could arise from increasing biofuel demands, are associated with declines in biodiversity (Bird Life Inter­national, 2005). Ecosystems may also be harmed by more intensive forms of biomass farming as a result of changes in the water table, increased pesticide use and encroachment on wildlife habitats (Kampman et al., 2005).
     Countries should concentrate on region specific biofuel feedstocks (e.g., Jatropha curcas, sugarcane, palm oil, sun flower, etc.) depending on soil and climate conditions, as well as energy crops that can be grown with minimal chemi­cal inputs and with high water efficiency (Bird Life Interna­tional, 2005; Raju, 2006; Yuit and Wall, 2006). However, in order to avoid pressure on lands suitable for food crop agriculture, initiatives are required to bring degraded and low quality lands under crops rich in nonedible oils (Lal, 2006; Yuit and Wall, 2006). For example, Jatropha is such a crop that is cultivated in almost all tropical and subtropi­cal countries, and is an important feedstock for biodiesel as the plant grows in poor soil and withstands long periods of drought. The Jatropha system promotes the planting of Jat­ropha hedges to protect gardens and fields against roaming animals and reduces erosion. The oil from the seeds can then be used as a bioenergy source. The Jatropha system and/or plantations are currently employed or are under consider­ation in Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Laos, Nepal, Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka and Thailand (Henning, 2004; Yuit and Wall, 2006).

4.2.9.5   Outsourcing of biofuel feedstock production
Industrialized nations are looking to ESAP to increase pro­duction of biofuels to meet their environmental targets in terms of emissions of greenhouse gases and reduce depen­dency on fossil fuels (Yuit and Wall, 2006). There is a po­tential imbalance between countries with a high and rising demand for biofuel use and countries where biofuels can be produced at lower cost (Kampman et al., 2005; Slinger-land and van Geuns, 2005; Henniges and Zeddies, 2006). Many developing countries are currently considering or al­ready expanding biofuel production and processing capaci­ties. This may create challenges as it becomes increasingly efficient to produce bioenergy, since competition for land and other resources will arise between food and fuel pro­duction (von Braun, 2005). Bioenergy should be seen as a positive step forward only if it is conducted in a sustainable fashion with equal emphasis placed on conservation efforts,

energy efficiency and climate change policy (Yuit and Wall, 2006).

4.2.9.6  Pollution and health impacts
Traditional bioenergy derived from the combustion of wood and agricultural residues for heating and cooking may im­part negative health impacts from indoor air pollution (De La Torre Ugarte, 2006). On a more global scale, the burning of biofuels is linked to large pollution plumes. The Medi­terranean Intensive Oxidant Study (MINOS) investigated long-range transport of pollutants and concluded that air pollution over the eastern Mediterranean between 1 and 12 August originated in ESAP. During the Asian Summer Mon­soon, convection carries polluted air into the upper tropo-spheric anti-cyclonic circulation and is then transported in the upper troposphere over the Mediterranean. This plume is characterized by enhanced concentrations of biofuel com­bustion tracers, such as methonal (Scheeren et al., 2003). However, the introduction of cleaner cooking technologies can reduce the contribution of traditional biofuels to air pol­lution. Traditional biofuel black carbon emissions in India have essentially remained unchanged from 1985 to 1995 due to the gradual introduction of clean technologies (Ven-kataraman et al., 2005). This is despite an increase in tra­ditional biofuel consumption. The use of modern biofuels, such as biodiesel and ethanol, is expected to reduce harmful pollutants from vehicle exhaust compared to petroleum-based fuels. An extensive survey of emissions from a range of biodiesels suggests that burning this fuel reduces health risks associated with petroleum diesel. Biodiesel emissions show  decreased levels  of polycyclic  aromatic  hydrocar­bons (PAH) and nitrated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (nPAH), which have been identified as potential cancer caus­ing compounds (US EPA, 2002). If wastes from modern bio­fuel plants are not processed as per environmental require­ments, they could be sources of pollution. Biofuels will play a major role in the energy management issues that ESAP countries will confront in the near future, involving wider policy regimes, institutional and technological choices.

4.3      Major Uncertainties of the Drivers and Projections
Major uncertainties affect individual drivers as well as the interaction between different drivers. It is important to note the difference between risk and uncertainty. The definition of risk refers to a quantifiable change in or likely future of some variable (life of an individual, catch of fish, agricul­tural production, etc.). Therefore, risks are associated with certain assumptions that decision makers can make about these variables. Unlike risk which is amenable to a certain (limited) extent of quantification, uncertainties are beyond quantification because there are gaps in assumptions (in­cluding those about number and nature of relevant determi­nants), missing information, and poor systems of analysis. These are variables whose future trends or changes may bring with them questions that decision-makers may not be asking at present. In some cases, crucial data may be miss­ing; in others the capacity to understand or project non­linear changes may be lacking. Yet it is important to keep decision makers informed about the existence of uncertain­ties (Table 4-7).