damage while maintaining or even increasing production and associated costs. These methods include no-till and conservation agriculture, integrated pest management and plant nutrient systems and organic agriculture. To reduce the population of undernourished, FAO recommends giving increased priority to agriculture, increasing national food production and reducing inequality of access to food (FAO, 2002). China has initiated new guidelines in response to increased pressure on resources (see Box 4-3). Intensive agriculture and overuse of fertilizers have led to degradation of soil quality and fertility in many parts of ESAP.
Physical responses to land degradation problems have originated from the competing influences of fiscal and market incentive programs (GEO, 2002). In the past, policies were only concerned with increasing supply, however recently focus has increasingly shifted to integrated water resources management. No direct reference to the future of land and water resources is made in the four scenarios of the GEO which looked at a 2032 timeline; however, the following conclusions could be drawn: Market First: Advances in technology and structural changes in economies might slow the trend in land degradation and water scarcity management. Policy First: Rate of land degradation could fall due to implementation of more stringent land conservation measures in response to changing tax and subsidy structures. Water conservation, uses and management would improve in future. Security First: Pressure on land and water resources would increase due to rapid environmental changes, wider inequality in economic and social developments and erosion of traditional livelihoods and communities. Sustainability First: Land and water resources would be managed in a better way due to emergence of new environmental and development paradigms and be supported by new, more equitable values and institutions.
While water availability is decreasing, water demand for agriculture, industry and households is increasing in the region as a result of population growth and economic development. In 2025, water availability per capita in the region will be between 15 and 35% less than that in 1950 (ADB, 2001c) (Figure 4-5).
The amount of water used to meet domestic and industrial demands in Asia is increasing rapidly, with rates of increase between the years 1995 and 2025 projected to range from 70 to 345% (ADB, 2001c). As economies grow, people typically begin to overuse water, resulting in increased domestic demand. China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Viet Nam are typical countries in that water consumption needs have increased with increased industrialization (ADB, 2001c). Economic growth in the region will require more water for industry and people. In urban areas, which by 2030 will be home to about half of Asia's population, water stress will become more severe. The increase in water demand in all sectors is expected to create conflicts among sectors and within each sector over water allocation. In Asia, many countries share international river basins as sources of water. Increases in domestic water stress would also bring more potential for conflicts among countries. On the other hand, such competition for water also provides |
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Box 4-3. Chinese National Development Program Compendium of Science and Technology for Mid-long Term (2006-2020).
Chinese agriculture is facing increased pressure on natural resources such as land and water with the increasing population and rapid economic development. The key issues urgently to be resolved for a sustainable agriculture in the near future include the food security, eco-safety, increase of farmer's income and sustentation of science and technology due to decline of arable land, land degradation and desertification, water pollution and scarcity, use of agriculture technology. The Chinese government recognized a range of such resource management problems and constituted guidelines to facilitate the development of the agricultural science and technology.
The newly released "National Development Program Compendium of Science and Technology for Mid-long Term (2006-2020)" in February 2006 developed the strategies of sustainable agriculture for the next fifteen years through enhancing development of agricultural science and technology. The four strategies that will be implemented include:
• By developing water saving and improving land productivity to substitute the resource scarcity;
• By changing agricultural patterns in a sustainable manner to achieve a win-win both in improving ecosystem function and facilitating agricultural production;
• By extending agro-product processing chains, promoting industrialized agriculture and agribusiness to increase farmer's income and
• By using the innovation of biotechnology and information technology to promote the efficiency and upgrading of the traditional technology, enhance the technological transfer and research on basic science in order to improve the ability of the agricultural science.
Source: State Council, 2006. opportunities for cooperation on allocation and sharing of water resources (Kataoka, 2002).
The gap between water demand and supply is increasing due mainly to increased demand from agriculture, rapid urbanization and industrialization. Water transfers to intensive irrigation based agriculture and urban areas are placing substantial ecological and political pressure on water resources and this trend will become more severe in the future. Industrial and agricultural effluents are affecting water quality across the region and threaten public and aquatic health.
Water will also be major constraint to the achievement of food security in many developing countries. As of 1997, the cereal harvested irrigated area was approximately 176 million ha in developing countries but is only expected to rise by 29 million ha by 2020 (IFPRI, 2001).
Increasingly in the ESAP region, there is concern that |