4.2.4.2   Political stability In most developing countries (including the ESAP region) the failures or lack of development commitment of the State are passed on as the ill effects of globalization (see Bardhan et al., 2006; Przeworski and Meseguer Yebra, 2006). Given that the world over, developed countries (except the USA and UK) have enhanced and expanded the size of their gov­ernment sector (ratio of government expenditures to GDP), it may be expected that the ESAP region will also respond in a similar way in the future—with governments playing a major role in poverty alleviation, macro-economic manage­ment, social insurance and environmental protection (Bard­han et al., 2006). Politically, there may also be increasing diversity of institutions (policies) among nation states. The key message for AKST institutions and organizations is that the capacity of economic liberalization and globalization to dismantle the barriers to economic opportunity faced by the poor depends critically on the capacity of public bodies to respond to the voices of the poor.
     One of the major responsibilities of public bodies in the developing countries in Asia will be to find the resources and appropriate allocation of these resources to enable rural re­generation, as well as provide the much needed social secu­rity in rural areas. The Asian crisis of the late 1990s showed the vulnerability of the rural economy to urban-centered fi­nancial and economic crisis (Gerard and Ruf, 2001). When remittances from migrants decline and many who lose their jobs return to the rural economy, agriculture becomes the mainstay of the rural economy. The burden, without govern­ment support or any risk coverage, falls on the rural economy, particularly on rural women (Nathan and Kelkar, 1999; Cook et al., 2003). Despite the existence of useful models of social security nets or investments by the State, rural Asia is likely to be lacking in these kinds of investments, because the pressure for other productive investments will outrun the demand for these in the near future. The Indian National Rural Employ­ment Guarantee Act (NREGA, which provides a minimum assurance of up to  100 person-days of employment per household), the Chinese continued ownership of land un­der the household responsibility system and the Bangladeshi microcredit systems (where NGOs, with financing support from the financing authorities, reschedule loan repayments, provide new loans and often undertake relief measures) play the role of safety net. With privatization of health and edu­cation services continuing at the current pace, there will be a large gap between these minimum incomes and what is needed to meet the social needs of Asia's impoverished rural populations (Ahmed et al., 1991). In parts of Asia, chronic poverty and the lack of safety nets drives people to organize around paths of violence.
     The ESAP region is a hotbed of political crises of vari­ous   sorts—largely   domestic   (ranging   from   secessionist parties, naxalite movements,  domestic  and cross-border terrorism,  communal tensions,  totalitarian  regimes  and anti-democratic legislations) in countries ranging from Sri Lanka, India, Nepal, Thailand, Bangladesh, Myanmar, East Timor, China, Viet Nam, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and some other Pacific countries. Political instability caused by such forces will reduce and even disable trade in agricultural goods and discourage learning and technology dissemina-

tion in these regions. There is significant cross-border trade and regular economic activities occurring along a soft and self-negotiated border among people living in different (po­litical) nations but similar agroecological terrains. The ex­change of agricultural produce or other rural goods across soft borders, e.g., in India's Northeastern states, contributes to increasing economic prosperity and sharing of ecological and cultural resources (see Hazarika, 2000; Baruah, 2005). An important political message from these fungible border zones across countries in the ESAP region is for nation states to recognize that people and their fundamental rights and access to regional or local natural resources and cultural activities can be nurtured as a major instrument of peace in the ESAP region.
     In the coming decades, a strengthening India-ASEAN relationship may add to political stability in the region in a wider sense. This depends on India's capacity to gener­ate economic growth within its borders and on its capa­bility to enhance national resilience of ASEAN's regional member states, and thereby to promote regional resilience (Prasad, 2006). In the ESAP region, India will play a much greater role in ensuring regional integration, promoting relationships in the ESAP region with global powers (e.g., the USA) and allaying member country fears about Chi­nese expansion and potential control over their own mar­kets (Tammen, 2006). Indian political parties, irrespective of their ideological differences, are committed to (1) peace and friendly neighborhood relationships (2) industrializa­tion as the mainstay of economic growth in future, (3) rural regeneration, and (4) infrastructure and energy investments. However, political strategies toward regional cooperation (especially in trade and labor mobility), domestic policies for poverty alleviation, health and education services and rural industrialization will depend significantly on whether the moderate and secular political parties or the right wing parties are in power in future.
     Politically the Chinese Communist Party is keen to improve the image of China in an increasingly globalizing world. The political agenda is to make sure that domestic development is endogenously driven, will enhance transpar­ency in decision-making and will combat corruption at all levels (Economic Daily, 2007). An important commitment for the future will be that the country will adhere to peace and peaceful processes for development in the region. Politi­cal stability in the ESAP region will be significantly affected by the power play between the USA and China as well as the interests of the USA its allies in the region (Christensen, 2007).
     The impact of political stability on agriculture and AKST will mainly be in terms of enabling investments in cross-border infrastructure or natural resource management (such as waterways, mountain ecosystems, roads, etc.). These are likely to bring long term improvements in the livelihoods, market opportunities and economic growth for people in these political borderlands in ESAP. Increasingly, the ESAP countries will realize that it is the capacity of public orga­nizations to respond to the voices of the poor, provide so­cial security where it is lacking and engage constantly with emerging threats to impoverished rural livelihoods that will lead to political stability and economic growth.