is based on a list of key drivers of change of agriculture and AKST relevant to the ESAP region. A driver is defined as "any natural or human induced factor that directly or indi­rectly causes a change in AKST" (MA, 2005). The IAASTD conceptual framework (ESAP Chapter 1) illustrates this as the mutual interaction of direct and indirect drivers, as well as the effect of each of these drivers on innovation, knowl­edge and learning, mediated through actors/networks and processes/rules and norms. However, given the nature of the drivers and the complex relationships between drivers of change in the ESAP region, a classification/listing of direct and indirect drivers of change would be an academic exer­cise of little relevance to decision-making. What is more im­portant is to explore how the individual drivers will evolve in the future; how the drivers of change relate to each other; and how these inter-relationships and changing contexts will shape AKST in future.
     A lacuna in current global decision-making and negotia­tions on globalization or climate change or poverty or any such international processes is that they "take place in com­partmentalized sectors such as trade/finance/development aid/ health," and do not question or assess the inter-relationships and impacts of each of these on the other global processes (see WCSDG, 2004). In this chapter we present some trends in the major drivers of change that are important for plausible decision-making in the future. We refer here to a large body of work on trends or projections of each driver of change. Much of this work has been attempted for different purposes, by different authors/agencies with different ideological orien­tations and values. Wherever possible we refer to certain time points such as 2015, 2020, 2030, or 2050 to allow for some comparability across the different drivers discussed here.

4.2      Drivers of Agricultural Change
4.2.1      Demographic change

4.2.1.1   Population growth
The Asian population reached 3.7 billion in 2000. The pop­ulation of the ESAP region constitutes about 56% of the global population. It is projected that the ESAP population will increase continuously to reach 4.8 billion in 2025 and 5.0 billion in 2050, which will be 56% and 54% of the world's population respectively (UN, 2001). South Asia has 40% of the region's population and one of the highest rates of population growth (ADB, 2001a). The slowing down of population growth is due to rising levels of education, in­creased female participation in the work force and greater use of contraceptives. Countries such as the Philippines and Bangladesh continue to maintain high birth rates—with challenging implications for job creation, food security and environmental stress.
     Together the combined populations of China and In­dia currently constitute about 38.5% of global population, and 73 % of the ESAP population. The demography of the ESAP region is changing rapidly. The population of India will exceed that in China by 2035 (UN Economic and Social Council, 2004). India's population is projected to reach 1.25 billion by the year 2015 and 1.53 billion by 2050 (UNDP, 2003) (Figure 4-1).

     FAO projections show a continuing slowdown in the growth  of the world's population.  The  average  annual population growth rate has fallen to 1.35% from a peak of 2.04% in the late 1960s; it is expected to fall to 1.1% in the period 2010 to 2015 and to 0.8% during 2025 to 2030. Absolute global population has fallen from a growth peak of 86 million per year in the late 1980s to current annual additions of around 77 million, but is projected to decline to 67 million on average between 2025 and 2030 and 43 million between 2045 and 2050 (FAO, 2003).
     The SRES storylines constructed for the Asia region re­flect a range of socioeconomic scenarios. The population projections for Asia are 1.54 billion people in 2050 and 4.5 billion people in 2100 (IPCC, 2007). Overall, despite varia­tions in the different population projections, the future is one of increasing population pressure in South Asia. In terms of sheer numbers, the population of South Asia is likely to be a major concern driving the decisions made for agricultural and rural development both globally and within nations.

4.2.1.2   Demographic factors
Demographic factors have shaped agricultural expansion and growth over the centuries. The Green Revolution in the ESAP region is the prime example of how population growth or the rhetoric of population growth and associ­ated projected food shortages led to a planned and rapid increase in food production and productivity. Over the next 20-25 years South Asia will be the most populated part of the world and by 2025 will be home to about 46% of the population in the Asian region (Hussain et al., 2006).
     The two key elements of demographic transition, fertil­ity rate and population growth rate, have implications for economic growth (and prospects) in rural areas, agricul­tural growth rates, education levels (especially female lit­eracy and educational attainments) and per person incomes (Hussain et al., 2006). Crucial among the determinants in Asia are fertility rate and the prospects for a well-nourished population.
     Fertility rates (births per woman) in South Asia (SA) and the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) countries are expected to change from the current rates of 3.1 and 2 (in 2000-2005) to 2.1 and 2.0 (in 2045-50) (World Bank, 2005). The slower than expected decline in fertility rate in SA is because of a slow expansion and relatively poor access to medical/health care and prevailing weaknesses in child health care systems.
     Maternal mortality will continue to be highest in South Asia as a regional cluster—the only exceptions being Ban­gladesh and Sri Lanka where the figures are expected to be lower. The marginal increase in fertility rates in East Asia and Pacific is explained by the decreasing infant and ma­ternal mortality rates in a large number of Pacific island countries and improvements in health services in general. Fertility decline in rural areas in general will be slower than in the urban regions.
     Child malnutrition will be difficult to eradicate even by 2050—and in the SA region it is likely that child malnutri­tion may increase from current levels given the degradation of ecosystems and increasingly limited access to ecosystem services for the poor (MA, 2005). Even with estimates of increasing health and sanitation and better access to and