Key Messages

1. Demographic changes will have a significant im­pact on labor supply and the nature and capacity of the agricultural labor force. The population of the ESAP region constitutes about 56% of the global population. The demography of the region is changing rapidly. In India and some other developing ESAP countries, the younger genera­tion will continue to dominate the labor force. In China, Japan and the Republic of Korea, however, the labor force will be characterized by an increasingly ageing population. Economic development and rural-urban wage differentials will encourage rural to urban migration. Increasing migra­tion in response to local stress, opportunities for education and employment will contribute to acceleration in rural de­population. The implication is that in the developing ESAP countries, the rural labor force will increasingly be relatively less educated, largely female and consequently have less ac­cess to AKST.

2. Poverty, malnutrition, social and political problems will continue to be significant in ESAP despite the prospects for economic growth, with South Asia per­forming the worst unless corrective measures are im­plemented. Although there will be economic growth and improvements in nutrition status, within a decade South Asia will be home to nearly half of the malnourished chil­dren in the world. ESAP is an epicenter of domestic and regional political tensions and will need concerted regional cooperation to ensure peace, prosperity and opportunities for economic growth. Increasingly, ESAP countries will re­alize the importance of the capacity of the public sector to respond to the needs of the poor, provide for social security where it is lacking, generate public and private investments in infrastructure and social development programs, enable pro-active civil society participation in economic decision-making and engage actively with emerging threats to im­poverished rural livelihoods in order to promote political stability, economic growth and social justice.

3. Globalization, economic and trade liberalization pose both challenges and opportunities for AKST in addressing the development goals. Although the contri­bution of agricultural GDP to national incomes is declining, the agriculture sector will remain significant to economic growth, employment and rural livelihood. The opportuni­ties from globalization and trade liberalization include en­hanced access to markets and increased flow of commodi­ties, technology, labor and/or knowledge and skills. One of the major challenges in developing ESAP countries will be the capacity to address in a timely manner the issue of maintaining access to appropriate quantity and quality of food for under-privileged sections of the population. In the developing ESAP countries, the existence of small-scale and marginal farmers will demand capacities to address scale is­sues and in developed ESAP countries the removal of trade barriers/subsidies will present potential opportunities. The capacity of governments to influence trade and AKST out­comes will be affected by the magnitude of global private sector control over agribusiness and trade. Increasing inte­gration of the ESAP region with the global economy, es-

pecially through technology/knowledge sharing and greater infrastructural investments will enhance employment and income in the ESAP region.

4.  Degradation of natural  resources and environ­mental systems will have adverse implications for achievement of each of the development goals. Nat­ural resources, especially freshwater and arable land, will increasingly be subject to serious pressure from competing sectors. Along with a continuing increase in agricultural production, intensive agriculture and overuse of agrochemi-cals will worsen current trends of degradation of soil and water quality as well as loss of biodiversity in many parts of ESAP. Rapid urbanization and industrial expansion will place increasing pressure on demands for land and water. Water transfers to intensive irrigation based agriculture and urban areas are placing substantial ecological and political pressure on water resources and in the absence of new tech­nological and policy options, this trend will become more severe in the future. Industrial and agricultural effluents will affect water quality across the region. In addition, intensive agriculture will further reduce the areas available for fish­eries and livestock production. AKST has the technologies but may require appropriate institutional arrangements to enable sustainable natural resource management.

5. Climate change and climate variability will emerge as threats to the agricultural sector in most of the ESAP region. However, some parts of the region may benefit from climate change. The IPCC projections show that occurrences of natural hazards are likely to increase globally. The frequency and magnitude of these events in developing countries that are already vulnerable to these hazards and dependent on agriculture is of particular con­cern. The outcomes of these hazards may be food insecurity and worsening poverty, increases in average temperature, changes in precipitation patterns, sea level rise and result­ing inundation in the coastal areas, increases in soil and water salinity, and new and more favorable environments for pests and diseases; these will have ramifications for agricultural productivity and livelihoods. There are many technological and institutional options to help mitigate and adapt to climate change. Climatic change may have some beneficial effects for agriculture in some parts of the ESAP region.

6. The agricultural sector will continue to compete with other sectors for energy and a range of other goods and services. Biofuels and renewable energy sources will provide additional energy supply and utilization opportunities within a wider portfolio of energy sourc­es. Rapid economic growth will substantially increase en­ergy demand in the ESAP region over the next few decades. The gap between energy demand and supply is growing and is likely to be partly met by biofuels and other renewable energy sources. Developing countries of the ESAP region will invest in and utilize alternative energy sources to meet increasing local demands. Biofuel production may result in competition for land, water and energy within economies, with implications for local food security. There are options for collaboration between AKST organizations (public and