efit to cost ratio of 1.9:1, meaning the CGIAR generated an indisputable return of nearly two US dollars for every US dollar invested (Raitzer, 2003; CGIAR, 2005). The most generous scenario yielded a benefit to cost ratio of 17.2:1 (CGIAR, 2005). This means the total investment in CGIAR from 1960 to 2001 of US$7 thousand million will generate US$123 thousand million in benefits by 2011 (in 1990 US dollars). Yet even this highly favorable result probably understates the total return on investment because it does not include the following points (Gregersen, 2003):

• Benefits from CGIAR's many research areas that are inadequately documented or inherently difficult to assign a value, such as influence on policy and natural resource management
• The multiplier effect, by which every US dollar of farm income contributes an additional US$0.5 to US$1 to the local nonfarm economy through higher demand for other products and services
• Land savings and their invaluable contribution to protecting biodiversity and watersheds, gained from intensified cropping of existing farmland

While the CGIAR system has demonstrated great international influence through scientific achievements and its pivotal role in the Green Revolution, it accounts for only a small fraction of the global agricultural R&D expenditures. In 2002, CGIAR accounted for 1.5% of the US$23 thousand million global, public investment in agricultural research and just 0.9% of all public and private agricultural research (CGIAR, 2005).

In line with food production trends in other developing countries, food production increases in CWANA the last four decades are attributed to many factors. These include crop genetic improvements and other research contributions, expansion in fertilizer use and pesticides, expansion in irrigation with improved efficiency, mechanization, better farmer education, improvement in transportation and marketing infrastructure and policy reform.

Evenson and Gollin (2003) assessed the effect of crop variety improvement on productivity:

• For all crops combined, the rate of improved varieties production increased each decade the last 40 years.
• Technological advances occurred in all crops, on all continents and in all agroecological zones, although these advances have been uneven.
• The progress achieved is related to the effort expended on research and the existing "stock" of research done on similar crops and growing environments. The internal rates of return on research suggest that public expenditures in agricultural research achieve high dividends. Studies of international and national investments in barley germplasm improvement, for example, indicate the return rate was up to 51% for Morocco. Iraq and Tunisia attained a return rate of 38% for their research investment, while Egypt had 32% and Jordan had 31%. Algeria, Ethiopia and Syria estimated return rates lower than 30% (Aw-Hassan and Shideed, 2003).

The rate of adopting improved barley varieties is growing in several CWANA countries. High adoption was reported

in 1997 for Egypt (50%), Jordan (50%) and Tunisia (40%). Relatively low adoption was reported in Morocco (19%), Iraq (14%) and Ethiopia (11%). Algeria and Syria, two large producers, had the least adoption, 5% or less of the total barley (Aw-Hassan and Shideed, 2003).

Similar adoption patterns of improved lentils are reported for some CWANA countries. The national research program of Pakistan reported about 32% of the lentil area in the targeted region is planted with improved lentil varieties. About 25% of lentil area in Iraq and Syria is planted with improved varieties.

2.4 Market Trends and Socioeconomic Evolution

2.4.1 Agriculture market shares of CWANA in global and regional markets

The comparative advantages and natural endowments in some countries form the basis of their competitiveness in international markets. South Asia and West Asia stand out as important exporters of most agricultural products, while the Nile Valley and Red Sea and the North African countries are importers of agricultural products.

2.4.1.1 CWANA and international trade of cereals

South Asian and West Asian countries are leading players in grain exports. Their grain exports increased tremendously, climbing from less than 100,000 tonnes from 1961 to 1965 to more than 5 106 tonnes in 2001 to 2004. Grain exports also increased considerably between the mid-1980s and mid-1990s. Kazakhstan is the most important exporter in the region, followed by Pakistan and Turkey. The CWANA region's share in total world exports is only 4%, despite these three countries. North America had 37% of the total grain exports for 2001 to 2004, while Western Europe had about 20%. Together, these two blocs had half of the world's grain exports. However, the export grains differ from one country to another; Kazakhstan and Turkey mostly export durum wheat, Pakistan exports rice.

Despite these significant cereal exporters, CWANA stands out as a net cereals-importing region. Aside from Central Asia and the Caucasus, all CWANA subregions have negative trade balances, and the gap between the exports and imports of the CWANA region has widened annually at an average rate of 5.1% between 1961 and 2004. With a deficit of approximately 43 106 tonnes of cereals from 2001 to 2004, the region is just behind Asia. The North Africa, Nile Valley and Red Sea subregions have the highest demand for cereal imports (Figure 2-3). However, the biggest increase in cereal imports is in the North African countries. This dependence on international markets for food supply is a great economic constraint for the North African, Nile Valley and Red Sea countries, resulting in significant public budget deficits. Poor natural endowments for grain production coupled with poor rural livelihood and increasing rural to urban migration create considerable social and economic instability.

The processing industry is developing all over the world. Developing countries improved the technology and productivity of their food processing industries. Wheat flour milling is a primary industry that has flourished in CWANA from