savings,
but downstream users might be adversely affected
because return flows to them are reduced. Again, following
the IWRM principles, having all concerned stakeholders participate
in planning and implementing significant changes in
water management may mitigate such conflict potential.
5.3.4.2 Depletion and development of water resources
Another effect of improved irrigation efficiency, particularly
on highly permeable soils, is reduced seepage to unconfined
aquifers, which may reduce the safe yield of such aquifers
and possibly decrease the amount of water available from
them. Together with increasing agricultural and domestic
demands this situation may additionally deplete renewable
and nonrenewable water sources. Many countries in the
regionâSaudi Arabia, Jordan and Libyaâhave been using
nonrenewable sources. It is expected that these sources will
be depleted in the future, and new water sources will have
to be found. In other areas, the renewable water sources
have been depleted beyond their safe yield capacities and
thus their water quality has been deteriorating. An example
is the Gaza Strip, where groundwater resources have been
used beyond their natural recharge capacity. Seawater intrusion
and intrusion from brackish groundwater aquifers
have now deteriorated these resources. Besides enhancing
natural recharge, such as through appropriate land management,
artificial recharge of groundwater aquifers may
reduce problems associated with decreased groundwater
availability.
The development of new water resources, however, may
entail deleterious side effects. Creating new (particularly
large) reservoirs may not only flood fertile valley bottoms
but dislocate the local population and destroy property,
habitats and cultural heritage. Having local communities
participate in decision making, establishing smaller-size
structures or reducing demand may avoid the necessity for
large dams and reservoirs.
5.3.4.3 Use of unconventional water
As water resources are limited in the region, the use of
marginal water such as brackish and treated wastewater
will increase. However, the use of unconventional water
resources may be associated with certain problems. Using
treated wastewater in agriculture might entail health hazards
and create water-quality problems that will have to
be addressed. Contaminating crops with harmful microorganisms
such as Salmonella in lettuce and onion or E. coli
in sprouted seed are potential risks associated with using
wastewater for irrigation (Jones et al., 2006), and nematodes
and pathogens in soils occur more frequently. Using
marginal water such as drainage, saline or brackish water,
and wastewater may also affect soil and water quality
negatively. Accumulation of salts, heavy metals and other
substances in soils and water will have to be prevented by
establishing and enforcing pertinent legislation and control.
Regulations regarding wastewater treatment and reuse will
particularly have to cover the responsibility of water polluters
in treating their wastewater to a standard acceptable
for safe use, as in agriculture, or for disposal in the environment.
Increased awareness among farmers, water users and
crop consumers will be required to address issues related to
health and water-quality aspects.
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5.4 Uncertainties
The preceding sections of this chapter have demonstrated
that there is a whole range of technological, institutional
and policy options through which AKST can contribute toward
achieving SDGs. If appropriate countermeasures and
precautions are considered, even possibly associated negative
implications of these options may be dealt with and
mitigated.
The future, however, bears uncertainties related to environmental
framework conditions. Important changes and
developments that are difficult or even impossible to foresee
may affect agriculture and the role and effect of AKST considerably.
Uncertainties are arising in various domains such
as the geopolitical situation, global markets and trade (international
trade regimes for agricultural inputs and products),
supply and demand for agricultural products (e.g., biofuel
vs. food and related effects on prices and the environment),
price developments for inputs (e.g., energy prices) and outputs,
climatic changes and unstable weather patterns (with
their effect on resource quality and availability), the ability
to tackle human, animal and plant diseases, and acceptance
of genetically modified foods.
5.4.1 Global markets and trade
Weather-related production shocks, energy price trends,
investment in biofuel capacity, economic growth prospects
and future agricultural policy developments are among the
main uncertainties affecting the prospects for world agricultural
markets (OECD-FAO, 2006). A major uncertainty
is the outcome of the Doha Development Agenda of multilateral
trade negotiations. If trade barriers and support for
agricultural production are substantially lowered, world
prices for a number of agricultural commodities as well as
trade may rise considerably. Outside the Doha negotiations,
however, bilateral or regional free trade agreements may increase
trade in agricultural products between members.
Increased trade opportunities coupled with higher product
prices may change the focus of agricultural production
and related AKST toward more export-oriented strategies.
Whereas producers might benefit from such developments,
poor consumers in urban areas particularly might suffer from
higher food prices. Emergence of new markets for biofuels,
carbon trading and biodiversity preservation also open new
opportunities yet to be tapped (World Bank, 2007).
Domestic policy changes in important producer and export
countries such as the United States represent further
uncertainties. The prospects for world agricultural markets
are highly dependent on economic developments in Brazil,
China and India, three of the worldâs agricultural giants.
Outbreaks of animal diseases such as BSE or avian influenza
may greatly influence demand and have significant consequences
for producers. Shifts in demand from an affected
commodity to another may occur briskly, and markets of
affected countries may close up. Animal diseases may thus
cause major disruptions in the meat sector, which will be
further transmitted to feed markets (OECD-FAO, 2006).
5.4.2 Energy prices
Higher energy prices, as for crude oil, directly impinge on
agricultural production costs. Energy is used directly to operate
machinery, and indirectly through such inputs as fertilsavings |