Reidhead, 2000). One way small scale producers could meet increased food safety requirements in the future is by pur­suing the direction of fewer and less persistent pesticides. However in the short term the cost of these new environ­mentally friendly pesticides seems higher than older pesti­cides. Many cases aren't affordable to producers in the least developed world, where low-cost labor often compensates for the multiple applications, needed with some of the old pesticides, which might be of low quality or adulterated (Dinham, 2003; Carvalho, 2006). Countries in the tropical belt are challenged by environmental conditions and by not enough AKST developed to overcome their intrinsic pro­ductivity limitations, while complying with acceptable food safety guidelines.

5.5.3.3 Challenges as affected by policies

The main challenges for the next decades will be first to ensure safer food to consumers and raise the quality of life without creating a barrier to poor countries/producers for opportunities of success. Food security is a concern as food safety may only be "purchased" by some consumers, a situation that could be particularly notorious with prod­ucts sourced from long-distance areas (Schillhorn van Veen, 2005). Secondly, in our search for mechanisms to improve food security in the world we are challenged to develop a system that will not cause the emergence of currently un­known health problems. The free trade market movement and the need to reduce internal hunger will likely result in more governments imposing their own rules or mandating the established international regulations. This will certainly create a major challenge as there are concerns about the possibility of mishandled information to affect the percep­tion of the international consumer (Schlundt, 2002). Thus, governments will act influenced by how the actions will af­fect the distribution of benefits across the entire population (Codron et al., 2005).

     It will become particularly difficult to control factors that compromise outbreak risks without collaborative in­ternational effort (Burlingame and Pineiro, 2007). A new approach will be necessary, one that incorporates food safety issues into the development of trade negotiations. Enhancing  communication   among   policy   makers   from countries with common interests will allow the transfer of successful schemes to those in more need (Babu, 2004). The two future paths on food safety regulatory mechanisms de­scribed above (private sector providing education, auditing and analyses or government enforcement and monitoring) will be affected by the type of market to which products are directed. Moreover, even with national enforcements, some countries might continue to have regulation that dif­fers substantially from those required in the export market and other local markets. The pressure over natural resources will determine some "natural" differences among countries (Hamilton, 2005). Some countries with known overdepen-dence on pesticides but with the potential capacity to de­velop a more systematic approach will have the opportunity to improve internal standards and increase presence in the export market (Gupta, 2004). In this regard, the narrower the gap between the traditional and urban market, the more likely a country will find its way to comply with food safety expectations in the international arena (Kurien, 2005), how-

ever very little change will occur if no major effort is made in educating local consumers and developing AKST to produce for the export market.

5.5.4 Biotechnology and biodiversity

5.5.4.1 The reference case

A number of challenges—scientific, regulatory, social and economic—will fundamentally influence the degree to which genetic engineering is used in crop and livestock improve­ment research over the coming decades. Greater or lesser use of genetic engineering will, in turn, shape the evolution of the agricultural sector and biodiversity. Conventional breeding and genetic engineering are complements; thus the reference case development pathway includes a combina­tion of a strong traditional plant breeding capacity together with the use of transgenic traits when useful, cost-efficient, pro-poor, and environmentally sustainable. A wide range of new traits are at various stages of development, some of which are likely to lead to varieties that are drought-resis­tant, exhibit improved nutritional content of feed and feed-stuffs, and offer enhanced shelf-life (Graff et al., 2005). It is likely that a combination of transgenic and conventional breeding approaches will be necessary to meet the crop im­provement requirements of the next 50 years. Factors shap­ing future adoption of new technologies include improved profits, decreased risk, increased health and well-being, and reduced effort, compared to earlier technologies used. They also include institutional and physical constraints affecting farming, like availability and terms of credit, information and product support provided by extension and technology pro­viders, tenure conditions, and land ownership. Furthermore, the availability and quality of technology are dependent on policy and institutional variables, such as national agricultural research capacity, environmental and food safety regulations, intellectual property rights protection, and the existence of efficient agricultural input and output markets, which mat­ter at least as much as the technology itself in determining the level and distribution of economic benefits (Raney, 2006). Potential constraints include property rights constraints, as well as evolving biosafety and food safety regulations around the world. Based on the literature assessing both constraints and benefits of crop technologies, the status quo pathway will involve continued rapid adoption of insect resistant and herbicide tolerant maize, soybean, cotton and canola varieties in the developing countries where they are already approved. More developing countries are likely to approve these crops—especially Bt cotton and yellow maize—under status quo conditions. Adoption of Bt maize in Europe will continue to expand slowly due to consumer resistance, de­spite growing tension between consumers and farmers (who see their competitiveness eroding in the face of competition from countries where adoption is proceeding).

5.5.4.2 Alternative pathways—more biotechnology

In spite of the limited growth in the development of trans-genics, it is possible that these technologies will reemerge as a major contributor to agricultural growth and productivity. The continued safe introduction and use of the current gen­eration of genetically engineered crops and the emergence of transgenic innovations of direct benefit to consumers or