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Looking Into the Future for Agriculture and AKST | 347
Table 5-24. Change in average crop yields under integrated nutrient management variant.
Region |
Crop |
Irrigated |
Rain-fed |
USA |
Maize |
-14 |
-14 |
European Union (15) |
Maize |
-14 |
-14 |
Other Developed |
Maize |
0 |
-14 |
Eastern Europe |
Maize |
0 |
0 |
USA |
Wheat |
-14 |
-14 |
European Union (15) |
Wheat |
-14 |
-14 |
Other Developed |
Wheat |
-14 |
-14 |
Eastern Europe |
Wheat |
0 |
0 |
USA |
Soybean |
-14 |
-14 |
European Union (15) |
Soybean |
-14 |
-14 |
Other Developed |
Soybean |
-14 |
-14 |
Eastern Europe |
Soybean |
-10 |
-10 |
USA |
Other grains |
-14 |
-14 |
European Union (15) |
Other grains |
-14 |
-14 |
Other Developed |
Other grains |
-14 |
-14 |
Eastern Europe |
Other grains |
0 |
0 |
USA |
Potato |
-20 |
-20 |
European Union (15) |
Potato |
-20 |
-20 |
Other Developed |
Potato |
-20 |
-20 |
Eastern Europe |
Potato |
-12.5 |
-12.5 |
Source: IFPRI IMPACT model simulations.
Table 5-25. Change in average livestock carcass weight under integrated nutrient management variant.
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globally important staple crops, food security. The emergence of new plant diseases has largely resulted from the accidental introduction of pathogens in infected seed and in contaminated machinery and globally traded agricultural products. Furthermore, increased intensification of agricultural systems both facilitates the establishment and spread of these new pathogens, and imposes selection pressure for greater pathogen virulence (Anderson et al., 2004). Climate also plays an important role in disease emergence: winds disperse fungal and bacterial spores, nematodes and insect vectors of plant viruses; crop-canopy microclimatic conditions influence pathogen colonization of leaf surfaces; and seasonal climatic extremes mediate the extent of yield loss from plant diseases. The negative impact that increased climate variability and change will exert on host-pathogen dynamics could accelerate the process of pathogen migration into new agroecosystems, and provide conditions that elevate disease organisms from minor to major status (Coakley et al., 1999). A second trend of importance is that noncommunicable diseases, such as heart disease, diabetes, stroke and cancer, account for nearly half of the global burden of disease (at all ages) and the burden is growing fastest in low- and middle-income countries (Mascie-Taylor and Karim, 2003). Chronic diseases are expected to rapidly increase as a result of more sedentary, urbanized lifestyles. In addition, the overall large increase in calorie availability in developing countries is ex- |
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