Impacts of AKST on Development and Sustainability Goals | 191

Climate change results in new pest introductions and hence changes in pest-predator-parasite population dynamics as habitat changes (Warren et al., 2001; McLaughlin et al., 2002; Menendez et al., 2006; Prior and Halstead, 2006; UCSUSA, 2007). These changes result from changes in growth and developmental rates, the number of generations per year, the severity and density of populations, the pest virulence to a host plant, or the susceptibility of the host to the pest and affect the ecology of pests, their evolution and virulence. Similarly, population dynamics of insect vectors of disease, and the ability of parasitoids to regulate pest populations, can change (FAO, 2005a), as found in a study across a broad climate gradient from southern Canada to Brazil (Stireman et al., 2004). Changing weather patterns also increase crop vulnerability to pests and weeds, thus decreasing yields and increasing pesticide applications (Rosenzweig, 2001; FAO, 2005a). Modeling can predict some of these changes (Oberhauser and Peterson, 2003) as well as consequences hence aiding in the development of improved plant protection measures, such as early warning and rapid response to potential quarantine pests. Better information exchange mitigates the negative effects of global warming. However, the impacts of climate change are not unidirectional; there can be benefits.

There is evidence that changes in climate and climate variability are affecting pest and disease distribution and prevalence.

Goals
N, L, E, S
Certainty
B
Range of Impacts
0 to -3
Scale
R
Specificity
Worldwide

Pests and diseases are strongly influenced by seasonal weather patterns and changes in climate, as are crops and biological control agents of pests and diseases (Stireman et al., 2004; FAO, 2005a). Established pests may become more prevalent due to favorable growing conditions such as include higher winter temperatures and increased rainfall. In the UK the last decade has been warmer than average and species have become established that were seen rarely before, such as the vine weevil and red mites ` with potentially damaging economic consequences (Prior and Halstead, 2006). Temperature increase may influence crop pathogen interactions and plant diseases by speeding up pathogen growth rates (FAO, 2005a). Climate change may also have negative effects on pests.

Livestock holdings are sensitive to climate change, especially drought.

Goals
N, L, E, S
Certainty
B
Range of Impacts
-1 to -3
Scale
R
Specificity
Especially in dry tropics

Climate fluctuation is expected to threaten livestock holders in numerous ways (Fafchamps et al., 1996; Rasmussen, 2003). Animals are very sensitive to heat stress, requiring a reliable resource of drinking water, and pasture is sensitive to drought. In addition, climate change can affect the distribution and range of insect vectors of human and livestock diseases, including species like mosquitoes (malaria, encephalitis, dengue), ticks (tick typhus, lyme disease), and tsetse fly (sleeping sickness). These infectious and vectorborne animal diseases have increased worldwide and disease

 

emergencies are occurring with increasing frequency (FAO, 2005a; Jenkins et al., 2006; Oden et al., 2006). These problems are thought to be further exacerbated by climate change because hunger, thirst and heat-stress increase susceptibility to diseases. Small-scale farmers do not have the resources to take appropriate action to minimize these risks.

The Kyoto Protocol has recognized that Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) activities can play a substantial role in meeting the ultimate policy objective of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Goals
E
Certainty
C
Range of Impacts
0 to +3
Scale
G
Specificity
Wide applicability

LULUCF activities are "carbon sinks" as they capture and store carbon from the atmosphere through photosynthesis, conservation of existing carbon pools (e.g., avoiding deforestation), substitution of fossil fuel energy by use of modem biomass, and sequestration by increasing the size of carbon pools (e.g., afforestation and reforestation or an increased wood products pool). The most significant sink activities of UNFCCC (www.unfccc.int) are the reduction of deforestation, and the promotion of tree planting, as well as forest, agricultural, and rangeland management.

3.2.2.2.4 Energy to and from agricultural systems- bioenergy

Bioenergy has recently received considerable public attention. Rising costs of fossil fuels, concerns about energy security, increased awareness of global warming, domestic agricultural interests and potentially positive effects for economic development contribute to its appeal to policy makers and private investors. However, the costs and benefits of bioenergy depend critically on local circumstances and are not always well understood (see also Chapters 4, 6, 7).

Biomass resources are one of the world's largest sources of potentially sustainable energy, comprising about 220 billion dry tonnes of annual primary production.

Goals
E
Certainty
B
Range of Impacts
0 to +2
Scale
G
Specificity
Wide applicability

World biomass resources correspond to approximately 4,500 EJ (Exajoules) per year of which, however, only a small part can be exploited commercially. In total, bioenergy provides about 44 EJ (11%) of the world's primary energy consumption (World Bank, 2003). The use of bioenergy is especially high (30% of primary energy consumption) in low-income countries and the share is highest (57%) in sub-Saharan Africa, where some of the poorest countries derive more than 90% of their total energy from traditional biomass. Also within developing countries the use of bioenergy is heavily skewed towards the lowest income groups and rural areas. In contrast, modern bioenergy, such as the efficient use of solid, liquid or gaseous biomass for the production of heat, electricity or transport fuels, which is characterized by high versatility, efficiency and relatively low levels of pollution, accounts for 2.3% of the world's primary share of energy (FAO, 2000b; IEA, 2002; Bailis et al., 2005; Kartha, et al., 2005).