Key Uncertainties

Drivers of change directly affected

Implications for agriculture, food systems, products and services

Implications for development and sustainability goals in the ESAP region

Climate change1 Rise in: sea level temperature precipitation (2015-2075)

Demographic changes Economic growth Agricultural growth Trade Investment

•      Resurgence of tropical diseases
•      High morbidity rates
•      Reduced labor availability
•      Unpredictable employment opportunities
•      Factor productivity declines
•      Food prices increase
•      Unstable markets
•      Declining crop productivity
•      Cost of production increase
•      Animal and crop diseases increase
•      Preservation and storage crucial
•      Deciduous forests incapable of regeneration
•      Desertification increases
•      Unpredictable production estimates, quality standards, etc.
•      Futures markets collapse
•      Higher market regulation with increasing loopholes
•      Capital diverted to survival (food, health)
•      Returns to investment decline

•      Increase in poverty, hunger and malnutrition
•      Inequality, civil strife increase
•      Economic growth unsustainable
•      Natural resource degradation
•      S&T becomes emergency driven and legitimacy falls
•      Governance and decision-making become more centralized
•      End of capitalism2

Regional conflicts (water/energy) (2015-2030)

Water Energy Trade Economic growth

•      Irrigation water pricing
•      Production costs increase
•      Urbanization slows
•      Off-shore fishing collapses
•      Migration increases
•      China and India—efforts to contain domestic inequities
•      India—global collaboration for basic needs
•      Nuclear energy increases
•      Hydel power collapse
•      Non-conventional energy increases
•      Gains in off shore oil gas
•      Energy prices soar
•      Trade declines—tariffs increase
•      Regional cooperation collapses
•      GDP and agricultural growth declines
•      Public investment in maintenance/ compensation
•      Private capital shifts to EU/LAC/ Africa

•      Water conflicts— worsening law and order
•      Hunger and food crisis severe—global aid resolves some of it
•      Limited employment
•      Gender relationships, female labor options worsen
•      Economic development grinds to a halt
•      Investments in water/ energy saving, construction, agricultural and industrial production
•      South Asian trade blocks collapse—China or China + Australia dominate East Asian trade
•      China regional leader
•      Civil liberties curtailed

Global conflicts (2020-2030)

Fiscal / Political stability Globalization

•      China withdraws investments in the USA
•      USA3 attempts to contain Chinese growth
•      ESAP divided—Chinese vs. US allies
•      Collapse of WTO
•      EU vs. USA—sub-regional trade blocks
•      Labour/capital mobility constrained
•      Global trade declines
•      Markets/ investments shift to ESAP and LAC
•      Regional and sub-regional instability
•      Regulations increase

•      USA and EU unemployment increase
•      Worst global economic depression
•      Economic growth limited to some pockets
•      China dominates ESAP
•      Intra-regional alliances increases
•      Global defense expenses escalate