roots and tubers. A notable exception is Bangladesh, which is expected to continue to maintain a heavy dependence on rice based diets well into the future.
     While East Asian cereal demand will double and signifi­cantly exceed its production levels, a surplus of 73 million tonnes will be produced in the developed world between 1997 and 2020 (IFPRI, 2002). Unlike many other regions projected to expand cereal cultivation areas, Asia will face limited   development   opportunities   since   approximately 80% of the potentially arable land is already under cultiva­tion. In addition, rapid urbanization will consume vast areas of potentially arable land.
     Yield growth rates will therefore be more important for ESAP countries than some other regions. However despite the importance of improvements in cereal yield, rates of yield increase are expected to continue to decline to around 1.25% annually in South Asia, 1.2% in Southeast Asia and 1% in East Asia over the period 1997-2020 (IFPRI, 2002).
     Other crop markets will face similar futures. Aggregate roots and tubers demand in the developing world will in­crease by 55% between 1997 and 2020 but supply is ex­pected to increase by only 51%. This is expected to result in a decline of exports in roots and tubers out of Southeast Asia. Southeast Asia will increase the regional surplus of ed-

ible oils, with production growth exceeding demand growth by 7 million tonnes between 1997 and 2020. East Asia will increase its edible oil imports from 4 million tonnes in 1997 to 10 million tonnes in 2020 (IFPRI, 2002).
     Under a pessimistic scenario, Indian and Chinese cereal production declined 15% relative to the baseline scenario, resulting in  significant trade  deficits  for  both countries (IFPRI, 2002). However, the analysis indicates that world markets are capable of absorbing these large increases in imports without major price consequences. Under this sce­nario, Indian kilocalorie consumption in 2020 declined by 171 kcal per capita per day relative to the baseline scenario and Chinese kilocalorie consumption declined by 264 kcal per capita per day. The number of malnourished children is projected to increase by 2 million relative to the baseline scenario in both countries.
     Access to water and sanitation remains a major concern in the ESAP region and governments may need to provide potable water as a basic input to ensuring food safety and health. Expansion of domestic markets for processed foods and beverages along with growth in agricultural trade has led to increasing awareness of food safety and quality in the region. Despite acceptance of international food safety regu­lations (e.g., Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point)