private) and wider energy systems R&D that can help ad­dress the development goals.

7. Existing national and international institutions, and educational and R&D organizations will be inadequate to address the multiple roles and functions of agricul­ture. The balance between public and private sector invest­ments and capacities for innovation will continue to shift towards commercial interests. Current linear R&D models and technology transfer approaches will be increasingly in­adequate to address emerging concerns/challenges. Increas­ing capacities within public sector AKST organizations will depend on the development of flexible institutional arrange­ments. Multiple and varied demands of the agriculture sec­tor will increase the pressure on current educational and R&D organizations to evolve to work with a diverse range of partners. There will also be demands for the skill base of AKST to include social, political and legal knowledge. Local and traditional knowledge systems (e.g., medicinal and aromatic plants) will become mainstream in parts of some ESAP countries, but will continue to decline in other areas (for example, tribal and mountainous communities). Availability and affordability of advanced information and communication technologies will enhance effectiveness of AKST. Increased investment in science and technology and enhanced innovation capacity will play an increasingly im­portant role in providing adaptive responses for agriculture to stressors such as climate change, increasing natural haz­ards, HIV/AIDS, avian flu, SARS and malaria.

8. The capacity of political, administrative and scientif­ic systems to learn from past evidence of the impacts of AKST and to adapt to emerging challenges will be crucial for the achievement of the development goals.
There are both uncertainties and predictable aspects to the evolution of drivers that influence the future of agriculture and AKST. Some ESAP countries will assess the capacity of existing systems and their flexibility in responding to past challenges, while many will continue to address crises on an ad hoc basis. Proactive investment in learning and capacity building within local, national and international organiza­tions will facilitate flexibility and adaptation. Poverty and underemployment, demographic shifts, trade and economic liberalization, natural resource degradation, climate and other stresses are all crucial challenges in many ESAP coun­tries. The interrelated nature of these challenges suggests that achievement of the development goals will also depend on policy choices and decisions beyond the immediate agri­cultural sector.

4.1       Context for Looking Forward
The economic and social structures of South and South East Asia and the Pacific islands are unique. The economies of most of the countries are highly dependent on agriculture. Only a few countries are industrialized and a few others are in transition. In recent years, the contribution of the agri­culture sector to overall GDP in all ESAP countries has de­clined as a result of increasing contributions from the manu­facturing and services sectors (ADB, 2006b). However, the agriculture sector still provides employment to the largest

section of the population in ESAP. Agricultural sector em­ployment in South Asian countries is in the range of 43-52%. Overall employment in the agriculture sector in South East Asia (except for Malaysia) is in the range of 37-62%, which is slightly lower than in South Asia (ADB, 2006b). The ESAP region's agricultural sector is characterized by small peasantry, with small and marginal farms accounting for almost 86% of the farming sector in some countries like India (Hobsbawm, 2006).
     Over the recent decades the agriculture sector provided impressive yields and great services to reduce hunger and poverty in many parts of the ESAP region, especially in South and South East Asia. Despite successes in food grain produc­tion, the sector has been largely unable to reduce hunger and poverty in Asia. Despite the steady growth of ESAP ag­ricultural trade, intra-regionally and globally, the region is marked for the highest incidence of malnutrition, especially among children. Notwithstanding the contribution of agri­culture to employment, income and food, it is now a major polluter of land, water and atmospheric systems in Asia. Some of the worst cases of gender disparities and marginal-ization of indigenous and tribal people are evident in ESAP. Some specific features of the ESAP region are:
•   Land degradation has become a serious threat to agri­culture. A global assessment of the extent and form of land degradation showed that 57% of the total dryland area in China and India are degraded (UNEP, 2006).
•   The gap between water demand and supply is increas­ing due mainly to increased demand from agriculture, rapid urbanization and industrialization.
•   Natural hazards—floods, droughts and coastal inunda­tions have become regular threats to agriculture. Floods and droughts damage enormous quantities food crops every year. Storm surge and tidal inundations cause crop losses in the coastal areas. Climate change is emerging as a new threat to cropping in terms of excessive flood related inundation,  shrinking cropping seasons,  and temperature related yield losses.
•   Globalization has multi-dimensional effects on agricul­ture: withdrawal of subsidies makes agricultural prod­ucts less competitive with highly subsidized developed country agriculture, however deregulation and liberal­ization also bring more opportunities for investment.
•   In spite of the green revolution and per capita increases in income driven by globalization efforts, food insecu­rity remains a major problem in many ESAP countries. There are many causes: the poorest of the poor have not yet attracted targeted policies for education and health­care; the population growth rate exceeds the growth rate of food production; there are growing disparities among the poor and the rich; increasing prices of food commodities are putting them out of reach of the poor because of limited income; and gender disparity.

Given this context the key question for decision makers who have to invest in or promote agriculture and AKST is: what will be the future outlook for agriculture in the ESAP region and in particular, what will be the role of AKST in meeting the development and sustainability goals of reduc­ing hunger and poverty; improving nutrition, health and